Most of these are + money, making it all the wilder when all 50 of them hit 🙂

Boston Celtics: Take the adjusted over on 57.5 wins (+150)

• Confidence: High
• Celtics won 57 games last season with a +6.7 net rating (best in the league by far) and some bad luck in close games. They upgrade from Marcus Smart and RW3 -> Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. This line’s a no-brainer.

Milwaukee Bucks: Conference seed over 2.5 (+155)

• Confidence: Medium
• Bucks have been the #3 seed two of the last three seasons, team is on the older side with limited regular season motivation (other than staying healthy and working through chemistry). 

Denver Nuggets: Finish 2nd in division (+330)

• Confidence: Medium
• This is more of a play on the +330 number… given the presence of the TWolves and Thunder (both have 50-win upside), it’s difficult to understand the implied 75+% chance of winning the division for Denver. 

Phoenix Suns: Under 51.5 wins (+100)

• Confidence: High
• This number is a joke, for several reasons. For one, 52 wins is a tall ask for anyone in a conference this stacked. Last year’s Nuggets only won 53! Phoenix projects as a bottom-10 defense, which is never a formula for RS consistency, and their trio of stars missed a combined 95 games last season! Even if everything goes right, the offense clicks, and they stay healthy, the under should be well in play. 

Cleveland Cavaliers: Conference seed under 4.5 (-190)

• Confidence: High
• This Cleveland roster feels a lot like the Eastern Conference Grizzlies. They are a mediocre offensive team in a playoff environment due to spacing limitations, but the humongousness which causes that issue does far more good than harm in the regular season. The Cavs won 51 games last season while posting the 2nd best net rating in the conference. With Philly and Miami both reeling entering the season, this line feels like free money. 

Philadelphia 76ers: Over 48.5 wins (+100)

• Confidence: Medium-High
• The 76ers of just two seasons ago managed to claim the Eastern Conference 1 seed with a roster shakier even than this one. Put plainly, Joel Embiid is a behemoth, and most paths in which he stays healthy end in them reaching 50 wins. 

Golden State Warriors: Finish 1st in Pacific Division (+360)

• Confidence: Medium-High
• This is a bet against the other teams in this division. The Lakers, Clippers, and Suns all have deeply suspect regular season rosters. GS probably only needs 48 wins to cash this, they have the infrastructure and talent to do so with ease, and the line is +360. 

Los Angeles Lakers: Exact regular season wins 45-48 (+320)

• Confidence: High
• This is an instance in which I am utterly confused by the price. 46.5 is the win total, as priced by Vegas themselves. I get +/- 1.5 wins at MASSIVELY favorable odds in a conference where nearly 7 teams might be in this exact range, all fighting for seeding? I don’t get it. The roster is legitimately good without being a real threat to smash the ceiling on this thing, and the safety net of the trade deadline always exists if things aren’t going our way. 

Los Angeles Clippers: Make the NBA finals (+1000)

• Confidence: Medium-High
• I hate nearly every finals/champion line this season. The Bucks/Celtics both being around 25% makes them impossible to bet, there’s no value in Denver, the Lakers/Suns prices are grossly inflated, and the longshots are longshots for a reason, much as I love my Kings. Thus, I am rendered helpless but to witlessly greet the same rake I’ve stepped on each year since its inception… and bet the Kawhi Leonard Clippers. I’m sorry, and yet I am most vociferously not. The process has been SOUND. In 2020 the team looked exquisite all season until Lou Williams launched an open rebellion in which he registered a Bob Cousy-esque 41% True Shooting against the Denver Nuggets while simultaneously operating as a blatant saboteur on defense, allowing an approximate FG% of twelve infinity to whoever he was guarding in that series. Still, it took 7 games for Lou Will’s Nuggets to take down the Clippers playing 4 on 6. The Clippers then leave Williams in the Southeast US and return with a vengeance in 2021. 10 games in to the postseason, Kawhi was operating as the unquestioned best player on the planet, averaging 30/8/5 on historically unprecedented 68% TS. GOAT-level Kawhi was dropping 30 a night on 57/40/90 shooting splits, and the Clippers were en route to a conference finals matchup with a woefully outgunned Phoenix Suns roster in which they would have been heavy favorites to make the NBA finals. Unfortunately we are but immaterial specks in a dark and unfeeling universe, so Kawhi tears his ACL and the Clippers bow out. He then misses the entirety of the next season with injury, comes back last year and picks up where he left off with two typically dominant playoff games against Phoenix before AGAIN having his degenerative knees snapped in the icy fangs of loathsome fates. Transparently, I’ve yet to see anything which shakes me from my belief in him. To me, at this number, I can bake in a 60% chance that they fail to stay healthy and STILL love the over on an implied 25% chance of winning the conference if they do get whole at the right time. Sprinkle atop all of this the James Harden rumors, and you’re not going to shake me from embarking on one final reprise with this soul-sucking franchise. 

Miami Heat: To participate in Eastern Conference playin tournament (+230)

• Confidence: Medium-High
• Back to simpler predicaments. This Heat roster is terrible. They spent the offseason banking on acquiring Dame, and now enter the season an impoverished retirement facility with a bottom-five offense. How exactly is this team supposed to keep up with modern NBA without their abracadabra wish upon a star unicorns and fairy princesses run of shooting luck, one which was fueled in large part by two players who now play for the Lakers and Cavaliers? In my estimation, the Bucks, Celtics, Knicks, Cavs, and Sixers will all have better records without question, meaning I only need one spunky team to get 45 wins for this to cash. 

Memphis Grizzlies: To finish 3rd in their division (+280)

• Confidence: Medium
• I am low on the Grizzlies without Steven Adams or Brandon Clarke or Ja Morant, but betting any sort of raw win total feels like poor value. I much prefer a comparative look in a division featuring the Mavericks and Pelicans, who I feel confident will both be stronger teams than Memphis if healthy. 

Dallas Mavericks: Over 43.5 wins (-110)

• Confidence: High
• A natural continuation from the Grizzlies bet, I think this number is gallingly low for a team housing Luka Doncic with any sort of legitimate shooting around him. Dallas will likely have a top-5 offense and a mediocre defense, but Grant Williams and Maxi Kleber ought to prevent the bottom from falling out like it did last season. 45-48 wins is my expectation.

New York Knicks: Over 45.5 wins (+110)

• Confidence: High
• I was certain the Knicks would be laughably overpriced, as most big market teams are due to public fervor, but 46 wins at plus money borders on offensive in the opposite direction. The Knicks won 47 games, then dispatched of a terrific Cavs lineup in 5 games despite battling significant injuries, and lost in a respectable six games to Miami’s jedi mentalization defense which held them to 24% 3pt shooting in the four losses. Young, deep teams that win with their defense tend to be very stable regular season performers, and the Knicks fit that profile in a very weak conference. 

Sacramento Kings: To finish as Western Conference 2 seed (+1900)

• Confidence: Medium-Low
• I’m open to either end of the extreme here with Sacramento. On the one hand, their run last season was concerningly magical, and it is conceivable that defenses will be better equipped to handle the Sabonis Solar System after seeing how the Warriors played him. On the other, if you believe in Sabonis to level up as a shooter absent the pressure of the playoffs (as I do), and think this offense remains at GOAT level with moderate improvements from all the young flamethrowers, then +1900 is way too long for the 2 seed. To offer the simplest version of the argument, the Kings were the 3 seed last season behind only the Nuggets and Grizzlies, and the Grizzlies appear poised to take a significant step back. Given health and non-fraudulence, are there any rosters in the West outside of Denver that feel securely superior to Sacramento in the regular season? Also, the Kings are just too much fun to root against. Light the beam. 

New Orleans Pelicans: To win in-season tournament (+2800)

• Confidence: High
• This may feel like a random bet, but it comes from loving this roster when healthy without trusting it to remain that way. The in-season tournament happens within the first month of the season, which hopefully means we will still have healthy Zion. For as long as he’s there, this team will be a cataclysmic problem, so 28-1 is a silliness. 

Minnesota Timberwolves: Win their division (+550)

• Confidence: High 
• This bet is the obvious follow-up to the Nuggets bet. The Wolves won 42 games despite being comically injured, and have more than enough talent to win 50 games. I truly hate the “reading a list of names as substitute for analysis” tactic, but in this case I think it is worth reminding people who don’t pay as much attention how loaded this roster is. Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, and Mike Conley. That is a mammoth, frightfully imposing group. I recommend betting essentially any over you can find on the Timberwolves. Take the over on wins at 44.5 (free money), take them to make the playoffs, take them as a long shot to be the number 1 seed (+2500)… they have more than enough talent to replicate the success of the 2021 Utah Jazz, who won 60+ games around Rudy. It’s a comprehensively underpriced team. 

Oklahoma City Thunder: Participate in the play-in tournament (+125)

• Confidence: High
• Why is this + money? These play-in bets all feel mispriced. Finishing as the 7-10 seed is a gigantic range of outcomes which could cash with anywhere between 39-45 wins on the season. I don’t see the Thunder putting it all together offensively yet this year, but they are too deep and too swarming defensively to be the odd man out in an 11-team race. 

Atlanta Hawks: Win their division (+210)

• Confidence: High
• If the Heat indeed have another mediocre regular season, this will happen automatically. The Hawks won this division last year! They now get a full offseason with Quin Snyder and a crop of delightful young wings around Trae Young. I think they are no worse than 50% to win this thing, so +210 is an easy bet.  

Indiana Pacers: Over 39.5 wins (+105)

• Confidence: High
• SOMEONE has to win games in the Eastern Conference, as will be the theme of the next several bets. Tyrese Haliburton is a stud, they added Bruce Brown, the team is young, Carlisle is a quality coach, and 40 wins is not a high bar to clear.

Brooklyn Nets: Over 37.5 wins (-110)

• Confidence: High
• The same thing applies here. The Nets don’t have their first round pick this year, so they are fully incentivized to try and win with their island of misfit toys roster. Is it a hodgepodge? Yes, but there is also immense talent around every corner. The defense has the potential to be all-world, and a commitment to shooting 40+ threes a game with their artillery would give them a ceiling well above .500 in this conference.  

Chicago Bulls: Participate in the play-in tournament (+125)

• Confidence: High
• It’s easy to assume the Bulls will blow it up at the deadline and tank – betting on such things is rarely wise. The Bulls just set the all-time record for preseason net rating, which sounds like nothing, but in fact has been moderately predictive of regular season success in the last ten years. The roster has plenty of talent still, so all it would take is a solid start to convince them to ride this out, at which point they’d be all but a certainty for the 8-9 seed. 

Orlando Magic: Make the playoffs (+155)

• Confidence: Medium-High
• Frankly, these odds aren’t as juicy as I’d like them to be, but this team has a scary stockpile of young talent on both ends. Paolo and Franz are already bona fide awesome, so there is margin for error with Suggs, Fultz, Anthony, and Wendell. I could see this easily being the surprise story of the season with a leap from any of those four. 

Toronto Raptors: Under 36.5 wins (-105)

• Confidence: High
• Masai…. The cupboard is bare and the supermarket is closed. It’s time to swallow your pride and reset. This may be the most boring team in the league. Siakam, Schroder, Poeltl, and Boucher are all at or nearing age 30. None of the timelines align, the team cannot shoot, Scottie and OG are frozen in development due to lack of time on the ball, and the ceiling is 40 wins. I think the bottom falling out is highly likely this season. 

Utah Jazz: Conference seed over 10.5 (-280)

• Confidence: High
• Yes, this number is a bit much, but it is seriously free money. FREE. The West is an 11-team race among absolute powerhouses. Read this list, and decide if you think the Jazz have even a 10% chance of finishing above two of these teams: Nuggets, Suns, Lakers, Clippers, Kings, Warriors, Grizzlies, Pelicans, Timberwolves, Thunder, Mavericks. If not, this is a mandatory bet. 

Houston Rockets: Over 32.5 wins (+105)

• Confidence: High
• I am going to do the list of names thing again. Sorry. Alperen Sengun is a year older and already a League Pass offense unto himself. Jalen Green and Jabari Smith are athletic anomalies who are themselves a year matured. Amen Thompson is everyone’s favorite human rookie. Fred Vanvleet and Dillon Brooks + Ime Udoka set the culture. Rockets starting lineups with Tari Eason late in the year were already winning by 10+ points per 100 possessions. This team is going to be electric, and a touch maddening, but they’re worth it. 

Charlotte Hornets: Over 31.5 wins (+100)

• Confidence: Very High
• I don’t really understand where this line comes from. The Hornets smashed this the two years prior to last. With Lamelo present, I don’t think 31 wins is even in their range of outcomes, so bet the over with confidence. 

San Antonio Spurs: Under 28.5 wins (+100)

• Confidence: Medium
• This is no fun to bet, I understand, but the number is absolutely inflated by the public enthusiasm for Wemby. Rookies rarely deliver on significant impact towards winningness, even when they are GOAT-level players, and the Western Conference is a relentless gauntlet of nightmares. Injury, too, would essentially lock this number in immediately. 

Detroit Pistons: Under 27.5 wins (-105)

• Confidence: High
• Someone has to lose games, and the Pistons are an excellent choice. They are bereft of talent. Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey are fun, but they are not old enough or good enough to drive winning in any substantial way yet. Bogdanovic is out for a month, too, so I see this getting off on the wrong foot and staying there. 

Portland Trail Blazers: Under 27.5 wins (+105)

• Confidence: High
• Same notion applies here, though this may be my absolute favorite bet. The Blazers are in a full tank, and play in the Western Conference where they will be 10 point underdogs in 50+ games. Feel free to put several units on this. 

Washington Wizards: Under 24.5 wins (-110)

• Confidence: High
• The last in a series of unders, the NBA is structured to encourage the bottom to fall out on teams outside playoff contention. The Wizards are going to want a top-3 pick, and Jordan Poole’s 52 shot attempts per game will only assist in achieving that. 

OVERALL PROJECTIONS

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics (59-23)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30)
3. Milwaukee Bucks (52-30)
4. Philadelphia 76ers (50-32)
5. New York Knicks (48-34)
6. Atlanta Hawks (43-39)
7. Miami Heat (42-40)
8. Indiana Pacers (40-42)
9. Orlando Magic (39-43)
10. Brooklyn Nets (39-43)
11. Chicago Bulls (39-43)
12. Charlotte Hornets (36-46)
13. Toronto Raptors (31-51)
14. Detroit Pistons (23-59)
15. Washington Wizards (22-60)

Bucks > Celtics in ECF

Western Conference

1. Denver Nuggets: 50-32
2. Golden State Warriors: 49-33
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: 48-34
4. Phoenix Suns: 47-35
5. LA Lakers: 46-36
6. LA Clippers: 45-37
7. Sacramento Kings: 45-37
8. Dallas Mavericks: 45-37
9. New Orleans Pelicans: 44-38
10. Oklahoma City Thunder: 43-39
11. Memphis Grizzlies: 41-41
12. Houston Rockets: 35-47
13. Utah Jazz: 33-49
14. San Antonio Spurs: 25-57
15. Portland Trail Blazers: 23-59

Clippers > Nuggets in WCF

Bucks > Clippers in NBA finals

FAVORITE NBA PLAYER PROPS

Steph Curry: Made 3s per game leader (-170)

• This should be -400, unless his powers are zapped by a swamp wizard this is an unloseable bet. 

Jayson Tatum: Under 29.6 ppg (-115)

• The Celtics just added two 20+ ppg scorers, he is absolutely not going to need to take on the same isolation burdens this season. 27 feels closer to the number.

Lebron James: Under 27.2 ppg (-115)

• Lebron took a step back from scoring 30 per game once the reinforcements arrived at the deadline. Even if he doesn’t personally regress at all, the under is a comfortable favorite in my eyes on a roster where he may more easily coast and defer. 

Jordan Poole: Under 24.7 ppg (+100)

• Are we sure the 27 shots per game experiment is going to go over well? With his coach? Teammates? I don’t think it’s that easy to score 25 ppg in the NBA, particularly given the culture shock he will experience going from playing with Steph Curry’s Warriors to the Kyle Kuzma Wizards. 

Cade Cunningham: Over 21.7 ppg (-115)

• Bojan is injured, someone has to reach this number on the Pistons and Cade is by far the best option. I think 24-26 is in his range of outcomes. 

Victor Wembanyama: Over 17.5 ppg (-115)

• Is this a joke? 

Chet Holmgren: Over 13.5 ppg (-120)

• … is this a joke???

Mikal Bridges: Under 25.8 ppg (-135)

• Bridges took on a scoring load that was unnatural and counterproductive last season on the Nets. I love seeing him with the ball in his hands a bit more, but there is no reason he should still be taking 20+ shots per game given his limitations as a creator and the legitimate pieces around him.