DISCLAIMER: 

I did this last year as a fun little exercise in weighing my analysis against what I understood to be an efficient and punishing market, eager to return at season’s end and review the innumerable ways in which I was outfoxed by Las Vegas. I am *not* a professional bettor (nor someone who even gambles recreationally), and I retain the belief that it is a generally insidious enterprise, one which would surely prove anti-profitable were I to pursue it in any extended fashion. 

Alas, it appears I contracted a vicious case of beginner’s luck. Of the 38 season-long bets I liked, an absurd 27 of them cashed (71%), 13 of which at longer than 50/50 odds. Had you bet $100 on each proposition, you would have made a profit in excess of $2,100. 

This is not to dismiss my basketball acumen, per se. I watch a *lot* of basketball. I record every single game throughout the regular season, watching 20-25 weekly across all thirty teams, and I do not miss a second of playoff basketball, frequently at the expense of other obligations. I love watching basketball, I love talking about basketball, and I love playing basketball. It is, however, to dismiss my gambling acumen. If I had to guess, sustainable success in sports gambling requires a far deeper well of sportsbook experience than I possess. Many of these future markets appear intuitively unfavorable, in and of themselves; am I wrong to assume that one-sided bets such as “X team to win the championship” allow sportsbooks to deflate the odds in their favor? 

All told, I hope it is by now understood that you should not place these bets with money that is actually meaningful to you. I am using the betting lines here to contrast my opinions with the best objective measure of general consensus. 

With my lawyers satisfied, we may now resume our regularly scheduled programming. Here are your tickets to generational wealth.

Rather than go team by team, as I did last year, I want to go category by category, laying out all of the picks I like within each. The result of this will be a less comprehensive season preview, which is my preference, as I am saving extended thoughts on every ball club for some early reaction articles within the season. 

CHAMPION: 1 unit each on Thunder (+650), 76ers (+1000), Bucks (+1400)

• No NBA team that entered the season with odds of +3000 or longer has ever gone on to win the championship in that season. 
• Using that as our anchor, we uncover a group of just 8 title contenders this season, those being the Boston Celtics (+310), the OKC Thunder, (+650), the NY Knicks (+800), the Denver Nuggets (+950), the Minnesota Timberwolves (+1000), the Philadelphia 76ers (+1000), the Dallas Mavericks (+1000), and the Milwaukee Bucks (+1400). All other teams are listed at +3000 or longer and will thus be thrown out per our historical heuristic (I don’t dismiss the possibility, but this simplifies the discussion).
  • The Celtics at significantly shorter odds than last season in a drastically more difficult Eastern Conference are not a team that I see value in. They are rightfully the favorites, but by avoiding the titans in their conference (Giannis, Embiid, even Jimmy Butler) they were able to coast to a championship with a facility that perhaps overstated their relative strength. No team has even reached the Conference Finals the season after winning the championship in this fresh era of parity (circa 2019), which, though a miniature sample set, speaks to the attrition of long playoff runs in the NBA and the speed at which its strategic landscape morphs. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets were thwarted by an innovative two-bigs defensive approach that exposed their inadequate shooting and spacing. The 2022 Warriors met a Lakers team with Lebron James and Anthony Davis that understood how to control the pace of play and punish their lack of size and rim protection. The 2021 Bucks were overwhelmed by a five-out approach employed by a young Celtics team that preyed on the defensive immobility of Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis. I cannot prophesize the particular kryptonite of the 2024-2025 Boston Celtics, who I anticipate will once again be a dominant regular season team and a monumental challenge for any team that faces them in the playoffs, but recent history tells us to beware the false cloak of invincibility that comes with hoisting the Larry O’Brien. 
  • The Knicks (+800), much as I love them, may be in for a tumultuous regular season (as I’ll delve into later), so I advise you to wait for this number to get juicier as the public loses confidence. There is essentially zero chance that it gets shorter than +800 given the presence of Boston, so even if you believe they are going to win the title (I don’t), there is no harm in waiting. 
  • The Nuggets (+950) are headed in the wrong direction in my estimation. I wrote last year about the unique synergy and dominance of their starting five (Jokic Murray KCP Gordon MPJ) and the mediocrity which befell them across all other lineup permutations. Well, KCP is gone, and with him departs the Nuggets’ only championship-caliber lineup. The acquisition of a decaying Russell Westbrook should be cold comfort to Nuggets fans, as he only compounds their shooting woes and replaces none of Caldwell-Pope’s defensive impact. 
  • The Timberwolves (+1000) shipped off Karl-Anthony Towns after the best shooting season of his career (42% from three, 87% from the free throw line), bringing in Julius Randle and Donte Divincenzo with the hope that 2024 Sixth Man of the Year (and personal favorite) Naz Reid can approximate Towns’ production. It’s a fascinating strategic pivot, one which I respect enormously, and I considered including the Timberwolves in this convoy of bets, but I ultimately retain too many questions about their offensive architecture with Anthony Edwards as the primary initiator. His warts as a passer were on full display in the postseason, and taking minutes away from the aging Mike Conley to feature Donte Divincenzo (himself an uninspiring playmaker) only exacerbates this strain. 
  • The Mavericks (+1000) put a lot of chips in the Klay Thompson basket this offseason, a decision I am fading heavily. Klay has been a wretched defender since returning from his injuries while simultaneously regressing as a shooter. He makes appalling decisions with the basketball in his hands and carries none of Derrick Jones Jr’s athletic spark and verticality. Luka Doncic is brilliant beyond words, but a defensive backcourt relying on 90 minutes of him, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson may be dead on arrival in a Western Conference featuring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, Devin Booker, and Steph Curry. 
• By fading those five, we are left with just three potential champions.
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder (+650) are a wagon. They were staring down a finals run last year before hitting a brutal patch of negative shooting luck in the Conference Semifinals, one which belied their general ability (#1 most accurate 3-point shooting team in the regular season). They now add Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein, two of the top five players in Defensive EPM last season, to an already suffocating defense that is expecting Year Two and Year Three leaps from budding stars Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. The Thunder have zero weaknesses. They have a superstar in Shai, devastating shooters, elite rim protection, violently disruptive perimeter defenders, and the reigning Coach of the Year in Mark Daigneault. If I had to pick a single champion, it would be OKC.
  • The Philadelphia 76ers (+1000) employ Joel Embiid, who might be the best player in the world when healthy. His statistical output last year was obscene beyond precedent: 35 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists per game on 65% True Shooting and a +10.5 total EPM that is higher than any regular season in the recorded history of EPM as an impact metric. The 76ers played at a 65-win pace in Joel Embiid’s games last year. That juggernaut is entirely intact and now replaces Nicolas Batum with 9x All-Star Paul George. Sleep at your own peril. 
  • The Milwaukee Bucks (+1400) were co-favorites with the Celtics at +450 entering the season in 2023 after trading for Damian Lillard. The Bucks played at a 56-win pace with both Giannis and Dame healthy last year, but both players suffered devastating, ill-timed injuries which prevented them from ever taking the floor together in the postseason. They are the same exact team now, only with added depth and a year of continuity, yet they are listed at more than 3x longer odds to win the championship? This is the one price on the board that I find to be glaringly incorrect and an outright disrespect to one of the 15 greatest players in NBA history in Giannis Antetokounmpo.

DIVISION

• Boston Celtics to win the Atlantic Division (-180)
  • The implied probability of 64% here is simply too low for a team as comprehensively oppressive as the Boston Celtics. They won 64 games last season, lapping the conference by fourteen games despite affording over a dozen contests worth of rest to each of their five franchise pillars (Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, Holiday, White). The Knicks are poised to face regular season obstacles and the 76ers have no intentions of playing Embiid more than sixty games, leaving the Celtics as enormous favorites in my view to win this division for the fourth consecutive year. 
• Miami Heat to win the Southeast Division (+185)
  • I am no fan of the Miami Heat. Their roster is aging and uninspired with recurring spacing deficits and a history of showing gross apathy towards the regular season. With that being said, they are now underpriced. They have the best coach in basketball, two All-Stars (including one of the best defensive centerpieces in the sport), and emerging offensive firepower in their young guards. They should not be underdogs in their own division to the Orlando Magic, who had the worst offensive rating among all playoff teams last season. Miami won 46 games despite being riddled with injuries and simply projects as a more efficient team with better players.
• Los Angeles Lakers to win the Pacific Division (+500)
  • Here’s a fun longshot bet. I think the Suns are rightfully favored but I have grave concerns about the Kings, the Clippers appear to be toast with Kawhi Leonard’s health betraying him, and the Warriors are mostly a memory. Can a rejuvenated Lebron, playing to set an example for his kid, with a coach I’m excited for in JJ Redick, not put together one last excellent regular season? Lebron and AD were both still top-15 players in the league according to both EPM and my own two eyes, and the urgency to avoid the play-in should be in full force from Game 1. What if Dalton Knecht is as good as he looked in the preseason? Coaching was a major deficit for Los Angeles last year and they won 47 games anyway, so I’m happy to take a flier on a ceiling outcome for a team with two Hall of Famers in a division populated exclusively by flawed teams. 

WINS

• New York Knicks under 54.5 (-110)
  • I love the Knicks and am so excited to watch them this year, but this number is insane. Depth is critical to regular season success, and the Knicks have none. Julius Randle, Donte Divincenzo, Quentin Grimes, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, and Isaiah Hartenstein, players responsible for over 8,000 of their 19,700 minutes last year, are gone, with Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa slated to miss the opening months of the season as well. This team bludgeoned you with their relentlessness last season and dominated on the glass, neither of which will be possible with their two leading rebounders gone, their rim protection neutered, and their once bottomless well of rotation players now reduced to just 6 reliable assets (if you include Deuce McBride). I like Bridges and I like Towns, but what happens when Anunoby misses 25 games, as he does every season? Towns averages 28.3 missed games per season since 2020. Are Jericho Sims and Tyler Kolek prepared to keep a 55-win pace afloat in their absence? Is Josh Hart going to survive playing 48 minutes per game for 82 games as this team’s most vital rebounder and perimeter defender? No and no. This might be the single best bet on the board this season. 
• Denver Nuggets under 50.5 wins (+100)
  • There is nothing about this team’s performance data last year that suggests it can reach 50 wins without access to its death lineup. With no KCP, given the shooting regression from Jokic and Gordon and the horrendous vibes around Jamal Murray, this season could quickly turn into a mess for Denver.
• Dallas Mavericks under 49.5 wins (+100)
  • Another under on a team that lost a quality defender to sign an aging former star with a big name, go figure. The Western Conference is a bloodbath, with only two truly bad teams, and reaching 50 wins is difficult under any circumstances. 
• Cleveland Cavaliers over 48.5 wins (-115)
  • The Cavs return the exact same team as last year, which went 48-34 despite missing Donovan Mitchell for 27 games, Darius Garland for 25 games, and Evan Mobley for 32 games. This price reeks of boredom more than anything. The Cavs are clearly better than this line when healthy. 
• Orlando Magic under 47.5 wins (+100)
  • I loved the Magic last year, and had them making the playoffs in my preseason bets, so it is with a heavy heart that I fade them this year, but I’m surprised that the market is so bullish on them. This offense was atrocious last season, the worst among all playoff teams, ranking last in three-pointers made among all teams in the regular season and 26th in three-point percentage. I am a fan of KCP, but he is a band-aid on a bullet wound for Orlando’s spacing, which simply does not measure up to modern NBA standards. Can they sustain top-2 defensive efficiency? Can they continue forcing turnovers at a top-3 rate? Their bounty of youth affords them a number of avenues to growth on both ends, but none of it will be sufficient (i predict) to stabilize the offense, as would be necessary for them to win 48 games. 
• Sacramento Kings under 45.5 wins (+105)
  • The West is loaded and I fear Demar Derozan will be subtraction by addition on a Kings team that thrives on ceaseless ball movement and playing fast. 
• Miami Heat over 44.5 wins (-105)
  • Refer to the DIVISION section. The Heat have more talent than is suggested by this number, which they still exceeded last year despite remarkably poor health. 
• Detroit Pistons over 26.5 wins (+110), Detroit Pistons to win 30 games (+230)
  • The market is fast asleep on the Detroit Pistons, who have the most underrated burgeoning star in the league in Cade Cunningham and a legitimate assembly of competent NBA players and competent coaching for the first time in his career. Monty Williams’ lone coaching campaign with the Detroit Pistons last year was a sabotage of apocalyptic proportions. Here’s a small sampling of the boundless rage I experienced and wrote about during his reign of terror.

• .
  • (Accounting for a formatting error, my apologies): Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Simone Fontecchio are all upgrades to supplement the core of Cade, Ivey, Ausar, and Duren. Isaiah Stewart should be healthier. I will be astonished beyond measure if this team, coached by JB Bickerstaff, finishes near the bottom of the Eastern Conference again. 

Exact wins

• Sacramento Kings 40-43 wins (+340)
  • If they indeed go under 45.5, they will be heavily flirting with this, as I don’t believe they have a floor outcome lower than 40 wins with Fox, Sabonis, and Keegan + Mike Brown at coach. 
• Houston Rockets 41-44 wins (+270)
  • I really like this Houston team, but I don’t see the ceiling in this daunting Western Conference for a team that lacks a top-25 player. Sengun, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith, and Reed Sheppard are going to make them a #1 League Pass priority this season, while veterans Fred Vanvleet, Steven Adams, and Dillon Brooks secure a stable nightly floor. There is too much depth and too much talent for this team to fail, but not enough starpower to trust them as a bona fide playoff team, making this range an enticing bet. 

PLAYOFFS / PLAY-IN

• Atlanta Hawks to miss the playoffs (-210)
  • I guess I’m just surprised this isn’t longer? Obviously laying -210 on a futures bet isn’t particularly appealing – you might as well just put the money in a high-yield savings account and skip the hooplah – but I don’t see how this misses. The Celtics, Knicks, Sixers, Bucks, Cavs, Magic, Pacers, and Heat are all in a different stratosphere of team quality. Atlanta could easily prove worse than the Pistons, Bulls, or Raptors as well. 
• Orlando Magic to participate in the play-in (+195)
  • This is a sweet number. If we assume that the elite four contenders (BOS NYK PHI MIL) all finish ahead of Orlando, then we only need two of the Cavs, Pacers, and Heat to outperform them in order to send Orlando to the play-in. As discussed already, I am high on the Cavs and Heat relative to the market, so this becomes a smash play. 
• New Orleans Pelicans to participate in the play-in (+145)
  • This is another intoxicating line for a team that lacks the starpower of OKC, Denver, Minnesota, Phoenix, and Dallas but features the best defensive wings in the Western Conference (Herb Jones, Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy) and a one-man offense when healthy in Zion Williamson. They’ve been in the play-in each of the last three seasons. Assume that the Jazz, Blazers, Clippers, and Spurs all miss the tournament; the Pelicans just need to outpace one of the other ten teams in the conference to make the play-in. 

PLAYER PROPS

POINTS

• Bam Adebayo to average 20+ ppg (-135)
  • Bam is taking over as the offensive centerpiece for this team as Jimmy ages out of his prime. 
• Karl-Anthony Towns to average 23+ ppg (+180)
  • Towns is the best shooter on a Knicks team that is going to play five-out and punish opponents for loading up on Brunson. He cleared 24 ppg in four consecutive seasons before the Wolves traded for Gobert, and Thibs may increase his minutes from the 32ish he is accustomed to playing. 
• Anthony Davis over 24.5 PPG (-115)
  • Lebron is old and JJ has declared he wants to use AD as the hub for all the Lakers offense. 
• Victor Wembanyama over 24.9 PPG (-115)
  • This is free money. 
• Cam Thomas under 24.5 PPG (-115)
  • This bet follows the same logic as my Jordan Poole under from last season. It is hard to average 25 points in the NBA. If you aren’t very good, even on an anemic team like the Nets, you likely won’t be permitted to continue shot-chucking for 82 games. I don’t think Cam Thomas is a very good NBA player. 
• Jalen Williams over 20.8 PPG (-115)
  • I might get bit by the Thunder having too many mouths to feed, but Jalen Williams is way too talented for this number to be what it is. 

Rebounds

• Chet Holmgrem to average 8+ rebounds (-170)
  • Sprinkle 10 rebounds at +1100 as well. It’s a confusing line. 

Assists

• Nikola Jokic under 9.3 APG (-115)
  • Jokic was under this number last year and loses one of his favorite targets in KCP. The offense should be worse, and Westbrook looms to siphon away touches. 
• Jalen Brunson over 6.5 APG (-125)
  • The playmaking burden on Brunson will be enormous, but he has the best spacing he could possibly dream of and so many easy buttons for assists. 
• Chris Paul under 7.4 APG (-115)
  • Chris Paul will be 39 years old this season. There is no chance he plays enough minutes to reach this number.