My 2024-2025 Western Conference All-Star Ballot

Requirements

12 roster spaces are available, divided into 5 starters and 7 reserves.
Starting lineups must feature two guards and three frontcourt players.
Reserves must include at least two guards and three frontcourt players. The remaining two reserve slots are positionless “Wild Cards.”

Eligibility notes

Jalen Williams, for reasons I detest, must be considered a frontcourt player.
Norman Powell remains a backcourt player
Eliminated due to games missed: Luka Doncic, Ja Morant

My Criteria

I am isolating my evaluation to that of their on-court performance in the first half of the 2024-2025 season. Historical production is irrelevant and I am not deferring to pedigree.
I do not abide by the custom of awarding sympathy All-Star nods to players on winning teams because “they deserve to have someone make it.” It should not be difficult to imagine a team with several B+ players outperforming a team that is being dragged to bare competence by a single A-level player. Such a phenomenon does not render any select one among the B+ coalition worthy of All-Star honors above a superior player languishing in an inferior environment. I will not have any Houston Rockets or Los Angeles Clippers on my roster.
The traditional PTS/REB/AST slash line, scoring efficiency as determined by True Shooting %, and Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) as available on dunksandthrees.com will be weighed evenly in my consideration. This statistical hodgepodge will account for ~60% of my final judgment.
The remaining 40% will be derived from my independent assessment and notes taken while watching several hundred games in full.

WESTERN CONFERENCE STARTING LINEUP

Guard: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander (32/5/6 on 64% TS, 9.2 EPM [1st])

Guard: Anthony Edwards (26/6/4 on 59% TS, 2.3 EPM [50th])

Frontcourt: Nikola Jokic (30/13/10 on 65% TS, 8.6 EPM [2nd])

Frontcourt: Victor Wembanyama (24/11/4 on 59% TS, 5.4 EPM [4th])

Frontcourt: Domantas Sabonis (21/14/6 on 67% TS, 4.8 EPM [8th])

Shai, Jokic, and Wemby ought to be unanimous selections. Shai is at once the league’s leading scorer and among its premier perimeter defenders, Jokic is having the best offensive regular season of all time for the third year in a row, and Wemby is already an unprecedented tower of oppression at the rim.

Anthony Edwards barely beat out Steph Curry for my second guard spot. The Timberwolves offensive ecosystem is treacherous bordering on openly hostile to success, and while I feel strongly that Edwards needs to improve as a passer, he hasn’t been presented with particularly appealing targets. Jaden McDaniels has regressed severely, Rudy Gobert is bereft of offensive skills, and Julius Randle is idle and unpleasant without the ball in his hands. Edwards has adjusted his shot diet drastically to compensate for these spacing issues, taking nearly 10 threes per game and hitting them at an absurd 43% clip. He is, without hyperbole, having a better season as a 3-point shooter than Steph Curry, and though he will never elicit the panic and paranoia that Steph does, he is sufficiently superior as a defender to secure this starting space.

Domas was a surprisingly easy call for my final frontcourt slot, though nauseatingly I fear he may miss the official roster altogether. His statistical profile this season is utterly absurd. He is the most efficient 20+ PPG scorer in the league at 67% TS, the leading rebounder in the NBA with 14.2 per game, and the 15th most prolific playmaker with 6.3 nightly assists. Sabonis is also among the best screen-setters in basketball, has made dramatic strides as a rim protector, and, just for fun, is currently leading the league in 3-point percentage (48%) on nearly three attempts per game. This selection shouldn’t be controversial.

WESTERN CONFERENCE RESERVES

Guard: Steph Curry (23/5/6 on 62% TS, 4.7 EPM [10th])

Guard: Kyrie Irving (24/5/5 on 60% TS, 2.7 EPM [40th])

Frontcourt: Anthony Davis (26/12/4 on 60% TS, 3.8 EPM [15th])

Frontcourt: Kevin Durant (27/6/4 on 63% TS, 2.7 EPM [42nd])

Frontcourt: Jaren Jackson Jr (23/6/2 on 59% TS, 4.7 EPM [9th])

Wild Card: Jalen Williams (21/6/5 on 56% TS, 3.6 EPM [17th])

Wild Card: Lebron James (24/8/9 on 60% TS, 1.7 EPM [67th])

Steph, AD, and KD remain shoe-ins despite what has been a frustrating season for their respective teams. Kyrie is not a player I am historically high on, but he has played terrific basketball this season, particularly in Luka’s absence, and has aged into consistent competence as a defensive cog in the Mavericks’ excellent system.

I was relieved to see JJJ pop in the impact metrics, because his statistics grossly undersell the leap he has taken this season. He represents a rare case in which adjusting a shot diet away from rim attempts and threes can lead to a boost in efficiency and defensive attention, as Jaren has been absolutely lights-out from the short midrange. He is taking nearly half his shots from 3-10 feet away and making them at a 54% clip, reflective of his maturity in understanding how to attack mismatches. This offensive growth has coincided with the lowest foul rate of his career, which was always the sole hindrance to his brilliance as a defensive anchor.

If Luka qualified, I would be left with an impossible choice for my last slot between Jalen Williams and Lebron James. Jalen is a walking suit of armor as an on-ball defender and a heat seeking missile as an off-ball defender, his versatility and disruptiveness being arguably the primary engine of the Thunder’s league-leading defense. His effectiveness as a scorer, however, has left much to be desired, evinced by a putrid efficiency unbecoming of his talent. On the flip side you have Lebron, who remains an offense unto himself at forty years old, but can no longer claim even a neutral impact on the defensive end. I would lean sentimentally towards the GOAT, but, mercifully, such a choice is unnecessary, as both players can make it.

Honorable Mentions

Guards

Devin Booker (25/4/7 on 58% TS, 3.2 EPM [23rd])
De’Aaron Fox (26/5/6 on 58% TS, 1.8 EPM [61st])
James Harden (21/6/8 on 57% TS, 2.0 EPM [57th])
Norman Powell (24/3/2 on 63% TS, 3.0 EPM [31st])

Lightning round. Booker refuses to consistently live up to his physical traits as a defender and is consequently a robust negative on that end. He and Fox both also haven’t quite been able to make the leap into elite scoring efficiency, hindered in both cases by baffling difficulties from beyond the arc (34% and 32% respectively). Harden and Powell have opposite problems, though they have both performed admirably in elevating the floor of an otherwise challenged Clippers’ offense. Harden is turning the ball over prolifically (~5 times per game) while remaining ice-cold from three, meanwhile Norm is setting the Intuit Dome on fire as a scorer but provides essentially nothing else.

Sengun is one of my favorite players in the league, but he desperately needs to improve his touch from all areas of the floor. For Zubac, it is unbelievably awesome that he has elevated his game enough to be receiving All-Star consideration, but he remains insufficiently voluminous as an offensive contributor for my tastes.

Frontcourt