Hi! Welcome to a small window into my process. Fair warning, this will not be artfully written. It is a fully authentic recap of the path by which I arrived at my All-NBA Teams. 

For reference, here were the 2023-2024 All-NBA Teams

First Team

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
  • 30/6/6 on 64% TS, 7.7 EPM (2nd), Thunder: 57-25 (1st in West)
• Luka Doncic
  • 34/9/10 on 62% TS, 7.5 EPM (4th), Mavericks: 50-32 (5th in West)
• Jayson Tatum
  • 27/8/5 on 60% TS, 4.4 EPM (13th), Celtics: 64-18 (1st in East)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
  • 30/12/7 on 65% TS, 5.9 EPM (5th), Bucks: 49-33 (3rd in East)
• Nikola Jokic
  • 26/12/9 on 65% TS, 7.6 EPM (3rd), Nuggets: 57-25 (2nd in West)

Second Team

• Jalen Brunson
  • 29/4/7 on 59% TS, 5.4 EPM (6th), Knicks: 50-32 (2nd in East)
• Anthony Edwards
  • 26/5/5 on 57% TS, 3.4 EPM (26th), Timberwolves: 56-26 (3rd in West)
• Kawhi Leonard
  • 24/6/4 on 63% TS, 5.0 EPM (8th), Clippers: 51-31 (4th in West)
• Kevin Durant
  • 27/7/5 on 63% TS, 3.4 EPM (27th), Suns: 49-33 (6th in West)
• Anthony Davis
  • 25/13/4 on 62% TS, 4.1 EPM (14th), Lakers: 47-35 (8th in West)

Third Team

• Steph Curry
  • 26/5/5 on 61% TS, 4.5 EPM (11th), Warriors: 46-36 (10th in West)
• Tyrese Haliburton
  • 20/4/11 on 61% TS, 4.7 EPM (9th), Pacers: 47-35 (6th in East)
• Devin Booker
  • 27/5/7 on 61% TS, 4.0 EPM (18th), Suns: 49-33 (6th in West)
• Lebron James
  • 26/7/8 on 63% TS, 4.5 EPM (10th), Lakers: 47-35 (8th in West)
• Domantas Sabonis
  • 19/14/8 on 64% TS, 2.9 EPM (35th), Kings: 46-36 (9th in West)

ALL-NBA PLAYERS FROM LAST SEASON WHO ARE INELIGIBLE THIS SEASON DUE TO INSUFFICIENT GAMES PLAYED

• Luka Doncic (50 GP)
• Kawhi Leonard (36 GP)
• Kevin Durant (62 GP)
• Anthony Davis (51 GP)

Of the eleven players from last year’s teams who are again eligible this season, six should be unanimous selections for either the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd team. 

1st Team All-NBA Locks

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be making his third straight appearance on the All-NBA 1st team. 

• Nikola Jokic will be making 1st team All-NBA for the 5th time in 7 years, having been kept off twice due to the now lifted positional restrictions (only one center per All-NBA team). 

• For Giannis Antetokounmpo, this will be his 7th consecutive 1st Team All-NBA selection, which puts him in rarified air historically (Kevin Durant, for instance, only made 6 his whole career). He is averaging over 30 PPG on over 60% from the field for the second straight season. For now, he is the only player in NBA history to have accomplished this feat even once. 

• Jayson Tatum will be earning his 4th straight nod to the All-NBA 1st team, matching Steph Curry’s career total (shockingly). 

1st or 2nd Team All-NBA Locks

• Steph Curry and Anthony Edwards both improved upon their already All-NBA worthy play from last season and made strong cases for the final spot on 1st Team. We will return to discuss them further soon. 

2nd or 3rd Team All-NBA Locks

• Lebron James and Tyrese Haliburton both started their campaigns too slowly to warrant 1st Team consideration, but they’ve played at a Top 10 level since Christmas. 
• Tyrese orchestrates the Pacers offense with legitimately unprecedented efficiency – since the All-Star Break, he is at 68% True Shooting with an AST:TO ratio of 8.88 to 1. He’s early in his career, but he is threatening to break every single record associated with the metric. 
• Lebron has had the most uneven campaign of his GOAT career, but his ludicrous February – 29 points per game on 66% TS to go along with 11 rebounds and 7 assists as the Lakers won 82% of their games – shut down any serious argument against him earning his 21st consecutive All-NBA selection (i know). 

Three players who did not receive All-NBA honors are guaranteed to be selected this season

• Donovan Mitchell would have made it last year if not for insufficient games played. He has been superb for the 1 seed Cavaliers and will receive robust consideration for the final spot on 1st team. 
• Evan Mobley is favored to win Defensive Player of the Year while pouring in nearly 20 and 10 nightly on 64% True Shooting for the 1 seeded Cavs. He will deservingly be rewarded with either 2nd or 3rd Team honors. 
• Cade Cunningham took the leap to bona fide superstardom, averaging 26, 6, and 9 to spearhead the Pistons’ historic turnaround (as predicted by me :D). He’ll get a handful of 1st Team votes but is likely to land on the 2nd or 3rd Team. 

That group of eleven studs stands above the field this season, so let’s slot them in officially before navigating the landscape for the four remaining spots. 

1st Team All-NBA

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (76 GP, 34.1 MPG)
  • 33/5/7 on 64% True Shooting, 8.7 EPM (1st), OKC: 67-14 (1st in West)
• Steph Curry (70 GP, 32.1 MPG)
  • 25/4/6 on 62% True Shooting, 4.9 EPM (6th), GSW: 48-33 (6th in West)
• Jayson Tatumn (72 GP, 36.4 MPG)
  • 27/9/6 on 58% True Shooting, 4.2 EPM (8th), BOS: 60-21 (2nd in East)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (67 GP, 34.2 MPG)
  • 30/12/7 on 63% True Shooting, 6.2 EPM (3rd), MIL: 47-34 (5th in East)
• Nikola Jokic (70 GP, 36.9 MPG)
  • 30/13/10 on 66% True Shooting, 8.2 EPM (2nd), DEN: 49-32 (4th in West)

The final spot on 1st Team was brutally difficult to commit to. Anthony Edwards retains substantial playmaking deficits compared to the league’s upper echelon superstars, which shows up in the advanced metrics (29th in EPM) as well as his inability (for now) to singularly drive elite offense for Minnesota. Cade Cunningham is relatively inefficient (57% True Shooting) and struggled with turnovers for much of the season (4.4 TOV/G). I gave both players ~15% bumps in my evaluation due to the extreme burdens they shoulder in the absence of other on-ball creators in Minnesota and Detroit, but both profiles fell short of Steph in light of his volcanic stretch run. Donovan Mitchell was the only contestant who measured up to Steph’s advanced analytical profile (7th in EPM, one spot behind Curry). Their nightly averages are essentially identical (24/5/5) given Mitchell’s exceptionally low minutes count (31.4 per game), and the team success of Cleveland (64-17, Eastern Conference #1 seed) makes it likely that he will receive the official nod. I think either choice is reasonable, but Donovan’s 57% True Shooting pushed me over the edge in favor of Curry. 

The other four, as mentioned above, should be unanimous.

2nd Team All-NBA

• Anthony Edwards (78 GP, 36.3 MPG)
  • 27/6/5 on 59% True Shooting, 3.2 EPM (29th), MIN: 48-33 (7th in West)
• Donovan Mitchell (71 GP, 31.4 MPG)
  • 24/5/5 on 57% True Shooting, 4.5 EPM (7th), CLE: 64-17 (1st in East)
• Cade Cunningham (70 GP, 35.0 MPG)
  • 26/6/9 on 57% True Shooting, 3.4 EPM (20th), DET: 44-37 (6th in East)
• Tyrese Haliburton (73 GP, 33.6 MPG)
  • 19/4/9 on 62% True Shooting, 4.1 EPM (9th), IND: 49-32 (4th in East)
• Evan Mobley (71 GP, 30.5 MPG)
  • 19/9/3 on 64% True Shooting, 3.8 EPM (11th), CLE: 64-17 (1st in East)

This felt surprisingly easy to finalize. Mobley and Donovan go from fringe All-NBA profiles to borderline 1st-teamers when you normalize their minutes (the Cavs have been a machine). Tyrese has been exceeding ‘05 Nash (who won league MVP on 16/11 nightly averages) levels of efficiency for a Pacers offense that will be an exhausting nightmare to gameplan for in the postseason. The Pistons and Timberwolves would be bottom-five offenses without the two former number one overall picks (Cade and Ant) there to generate advantages with pantheon-caliber regularity. Lebron’s February was better than any month of basketball played by any of these candidates, but his career-worst EPM (2.0, 57th best) aligns with my assessment that he has been inconsistent. 

We’ll slot Lebron into 3rd Team, then, and move on to filling the remaining four open spaces. 

Let’s start with the three players who were All-NBA last season who we have yet to categorize. 

Jalen Brunson (65 GP, 35.4 MPG)

• 26/3/7 on 61% True Shooting, 2.6 EPM (43rd), NYK: 50-31 (3rd in East)

Brunson has regressed from his unbelievable form last season (finished 5th in League MVP voting), but he remains a brilliant three-level scorer for the 5th best offense in the Association, having slightly upped his efficiency in tandem with notching a career-best average in assists. He is still pretty easily deserving of All-NBA honors, in my opinion, and will occupy the second slot on our 3rd Team. 

Devin Booker (75 GP, 37.3 MPG)

• 26/4/7 on 59% True Shooting, 1.9 EPM (60th), PHO: 36-45 (11th in West)

Devin Booker’s numbers conceal what has been a profoundly disappointing season for a player who just recently was knocking on the door of superstardom. Once considered a relatively strong perimeter defender, Booker has regressed to catastrophic liability status on that end – EPM rates him as the 474th best defender in the Association, a D-EPM of negative 1.5. Basketball Index’s LEBRON metric grades him as the single worst defender in all of basketball. This is flatly disqualifying for All-NBA status. It doesn’t help that he remains an astonishingly bad three-point shooter for a player with such beautiful, compact mechanics – he converted just 33% of his 7 attempts per game. He’s a gifted scorer but the 2024-2025 Phoenix Suns were a disgrace to the name of wizard and he bears significant responsibility. 

Domantas Sabonis (69 GP, 34.9 MPG)

• 19/14/6 on 65% True Shooting, 3.0 EPM (36th), SAC: 39-42 (10th in West)

Sabonis is endeavoring to make All-NBA 3rd Team for the third straight season, and midway through the season appeared unquestionably on track to succeed. He was the league’s most efficient 20+ PPG scorer at 67% True Shooting, he was the league’s leading rebounder, he was 15th in assists, he was top 10 in every advanced metric, and he was shooting 49% from three on substantial volume just as the cherry on top. 

Then the Kings traded De’Aaron Fox, and, since that trade, he is averaging 15/11/5 on 59% True Shooting. He has regressed to horrifying 17% accuracy from beyond the arc, his elite screen-setting is totally wasted in a Lavine/Derozan offense, and the Kings defense has fallen off a cliff. 

How do I even begin to evaluate his season holistically? He was a borderline 1st Team All-NBA caliber player for the first 45 games of his campaign, then a rudderless mass for the final 24. I’ll shelf him for now and return for further investigation if I fail to find three more satisfying All-NBA profiles elsewhere. 

Reminder: Players deserving of All-NBA consideration who failed to meet the 65 games threshold

• Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis
• Victor Wembanyama, Franz Wagner, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Damian Lillard, Ja Morant, Paolo Banchero, De’Aaron Fox

Candidate #1: Karl-Anthony Towns (72 GP, 35.0 MPG)

• 24/13/3 on 63% True Shooting, 3.4 EPM (24th), NYK: 50-31 (3rd in East)

KAT’s resume was the first I interrogated in my search to fill our three remaining openings, and indeed its worthiness holds up under scrutiny. Towns scores with the 4th highest regularity among all players in the restricted area (4.8 FGM/G), behind just Giannis, Zion, and Sabonis while simultaneously shooting 42% from three for the third time in the last four years. These are ludicrously efficient possessions in any context, but to have that level of skill at the Center position unlocks boundless space and versatility for an offense. In most universes, a seven foot tall three-level scorer who finished 2nd in rebounding would be a lot closer to 1st Team All-NBA than the fringes of 3rd Team, defensive warts be damned. 

Infuriatingly, the Knicks have done Towns a grave disservice in crafting his offensive utilization profile this season. There is no excuse for a shooter of KAT’s caliber to be taking 4.7 threes per game, which ranks 91st in the NBA and represents the fewest threes he has attempted in any season since he was 22 years old. Towns scores on just 48% of his post-ups, placing him at exactly the 50th percentile of efficiency, so, naturally, the Knicks have encouraged him to take the 9th most attempts from the post of all players in the Association. He is the single deadliest pick n’ pop center in the world, yet they run PnP between him and Brunson approximately 20x less often than they feed him post-ups and isos (0.86 points per possession). He is 49th in usage rate despite being the Knicks most efficient offensive player, and Thibs has hung him out to dry on the other end with inflexible, uncreative approaches to defending PnR that allow teams to target him relentlessly. I can’t shake the feeling that there is enormous untapped potential for the playoffs if the team at any point embraces a Bostonian five-out approach, but as presently constituted the Knicks are not receiving no-doubt All-NBA impact from Towns. 

Candidate #2: Jaren Jackson Jr (74 GP, 29.8 MPG)

• 22/6/2 on 59% True Shooting, 3.7 EPM (13th), MEM: 47-34 (8th in West)

Jaren was a stone-cold guarantee to make my ballot, likely as even a second-teamer, but the second half of the season for him and the Grizzlies has been frankly embarrassing. They went 7-15 in the 22 games Jaren played post-ASB, with JJJ declining significantly in every statistical category, and he has gotten into foul trouble (at least 4 fouls committed) in thirteen of those 22 games. There is nobody who cares less about the accumulation of individual rebounds than I do, but Jaren’s allergy to rebounding the basketball at 6’10” borders on legitimately unprofessional. He ranks 146th in rebounds per game since the All-Star break (4.6 per game), behind Kylor Kelly, Jericho Sims, Tidjane Salaun, Gradey Dick, and Jarred Vanderbilt. He is a poor screener, a 41st percentile finisher at the rim, and a terrible passer. 

Despite my agitation with him, he remains deserving of the considerable All-NBA buzz he has been receiving. The list of players in NBA history who have both won Defensive Player of the Year (as Jaren did in 2023) and shot 38% on a high volume of threes (as Jaren did this season) is extremely short. His per-minute production suggests that he would have been a 27 point per game scorer in the absence of persistent foul trouble, and the advanced metrics (EPM, LEBRON) all estimate his impact as having been definitively All-NBA worthy. 

Candidate #3: Alperen Sengun (75 GP, 31.6 MPG)

• 19/10/5 on 54% True Shooting, 3.0 EPM (34th), HOU: 52-29 (2nd in West)

Sengun is one of my favorite players in the league, so this pains me to say, but, putting aside widespread sentiment that the Rockets “deserve” an All-NBA player, his individual play has been a firm notch below the other candidates. His efficiency (54% TS) is essentially a non-starter – he was a 34th percentile scorer at the rim, a 42nd percentile scorer in the midrange, a 69% free throw shooter, and a 3rd percentile 3-point shooter (23%). Advanced metrics are giving him a higher proportion of the credit (95th percentile in D-EPM) than I would for Houston’s impressive defense, which if anything has succeeded in spite of his athletic limitations. He is a flashier passer than he is a voluminous or consistent setup artist, and his deficits as a jump shooter hamper the spacing of an already cramped Houston offense. To me, Houston’s success has disguised something of a step back from last season for Sengun, and, though he warrants mention as he is sure to receive votes, I would ultimately be disappointed to see him make the team given the strength of the field. 

Candidate #4: Jalen Williams (69 GP, 32.4 MPG)

• 22/5/5 on 57% True Shooting, 3.6 EPM (14th), OKC: 67-14 (1st in West)

Here, again, we have one of my favorite players in the league, but contrary to my feelings on Sengun I am leaning ‘yes’ on All-NBA honors for the player I believe has been the irreplaceable centerpiece for OKC’s historically oppressive defense. Jalen Williams does everything. He’s laterally quick and physically strong, he has a 7’3” wingspan (he’s only 6’5”!) and a 40-inch vertical, he never gets into foul trouble, and he played full-time center for two months when Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren were injured, during which time the Thunder inconceivably got even BETTER defensively (103 defensive rating, lowest since the ‘19 Milwaukee Bucks, forcing 19 turnovers per game). He is an elite on-ball defender, an elite off-ball defender, an expert screen navigator, a world-class ball hawk, and the best rim protector I have ever seen for a player his height or shorter. This same player is a 38% career three-point shooter and 20+ point per game scorer who doesn’t need the ball in his hands while retaining the ability to scale up to 28/8/7 splits when Shai is off the court. And he’s adorable (I know I am not allowed to factor that into my analysis). 

There are, however, some questions I don’t know how to answer. The Thunder went 13-0 in games Jalen Williams missed, which includes road victories over Boston, Milwaukee, Detroit, and the Clippers. The team performed nearly 15 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor (those of you who read the MVP article know how I feel about On/Off, but nonetheless), and his individual efficiency as a scorer leaves something to be desired. 

Candidate #5: Ivica Zubac (79 GP, 32.7 MPG)

• 17/13/3 on 64% True Shooting, 4.0 EPM (10th), LAC: 49-32 (5th in West)

Zubac is not going to make All-NBA, but his analytical profile is outright screaming for him to. He is top ten in several All-in-One metrics (EPM, LEBRON, etc), and it isn’t that hard to see why – he’s one of the most efficient interior scorers in the game and a top three candidate for Defensive Player of the Year as the anchor for the league’s 3rd best defense. Zubac shot 59% on jump hooks this season and made more of them (212) than any player since 1996, the furthest tracking data goes back. He has had a Jokic-esque On/Off swing, too, where the Clippers outperform their opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions with Zubac on the court while losing by 4 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench. Much of this, however, can be attributed to a backup center rotation featuring *literally nobody.* They do not have a backup center. They play some combination of Ben Simmons, Nico Batum, Amir Coffey, and Derrick Jones Jr at Center when Zubac goes to the bench. 

Candidate #6: James Harden (78 GP, 35.1 MPG)

• 23/6/9 on 58% True Shooting, 3.0 EPM (37th), LAC: 49-32 (5th in West)

I was out on James Harden as an All-Star at midseason, but this closing stretch of basketball has been nothing short of awe-inspiring. 35-year-old James Harden, after two and a half seasons of barely scratching 20 points per game on putrid efficiency, tapped into a reservoir I’d taken for dead to average 26, 6, and 9 on 64% True Shooting for a 21-game stretch in which the Clippers went 18-3 and resurrected their season. He has shouldered every on-ball burden for a Clippers’ offense that needed to stay afloat for almost fifty games without Kawhi Leonard, all while transforming himself into a legitimate defender for a unit that has wreaked havoc on the NBA’s most prolific perimeter scorers. 

Apologies to Darius Garland, Pascal Siakam, and Trae Young, all of whom I considered as well. 

Here is where I landed as the finalized version of my All-NBA 3rd Team. 

3rd Team All-NBA

• Jalen Brunson (65 GP, 35.4 MPG)
• 26/3/7 on 61% True Shooting, 2.6 EPM (43rd), NYK: 50-31 (3rd in East)
• James Harden (78 GP, 35.1 MPG)
  • 23/6/9 on 58% True Shooting, 3.0 EPM (37th), LAC: 49-32 (5th in West)
• Jalen Williams (69 GP, 32.4 MPG)
• 22/5/5 on 57% True Shooting, 3.6 EPM (14th), OKC: 67-14 (1st in West)

• Lebron James (70 GP, 34.9 MPG)
  • 24/8/8 on 60% True Shooting, 2.1 EPM (56th), LAL: 50-32 (3rd in West)
• Karl-Anthony Towns (72 GP, 35.0 MPG)
  • 24/13/3 on 63% True Shooting, 3.4 EPM (24th), NYK: 50-31 (3rd in East)

Thanks for reading! Apologies for the drastic departure from more typical formality, but this was really intended as an authentic illumination of my process, not a piece of prose. Below I will list my All-NBA teams one last team, contrasting them with who I predict will in reality end up being voted onto the teams. 

Justin’s 1st Team All-NBA vs who I predict the voters will choose

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (same)
• Steph Curry (Donovan Mitchell)
• Jayson Tatum (same)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (same)
• Nikola Jokic (same)

Justin’s 2nd Team All-NBA vs who I predict the voters will choose

• Anthony Edwards (same)
• Donovan Mitchell (Steph Curry)
• Cade Cunningham (same)
• Tyrese Haliburton (Lebron James)
• Evan Mobley (Karl-Anthony Towns)

3rd Team All-NBA

• Jalen Brunson (same)
• James Harden (same)
• Jalen Williams (Alperen Sengun)

• Lebron James (Tyrese Haliburton)
• Karl-Anthony Towns (Evan Mobley)