It is 4:03 AM on the eve of NBA Opening Day, and I have finally completed an incomparably exhausting weekend of writing and research, save for this introduction. As such, you will not be getting my best paragraph here. My sincerest condolences to those of you who have not already scrolled to the first team and been jumpscared by the preposterous length of this article. I did not begin this exercise with the intention of dividing the articles by East and West – it is merely a trick to disguise the obscene disregard for your time suggested by my having written a 29-page season preview. 

There is much I am supposed to say here. The first edition of this article, published on the morning of Opening Day in 2023, featured 38 NBA futures bets. The second edition, published on Opening Day of 2024, featured 30 NBA futures bets. 47 of those 68 bets have cashed, the majority of which at longer than +100 odds. Had you placed $100 on each one, you would currently be enjoying a $4,400 profit. We correctly predicted the Thunder to win the championship last year and divined the ascension of the Detroit Pistons. 

But, truth be told, I fear gambling. I am a dedicated fan of this sport, to be sure. I watch multiple hours of League Pass every night throughout the season, I take notes! There’s no doubt I have some insight. This has not all been dumb luck. Nevertheless, my understanding remains that the house always wins. Do not wager an amount of money that is significant to you on professional sports, my bets or otherwise. Besides, the spirit of this blog is not, and never has been, a pursuit of money-making. I myself do not even place these bets! 

Hence, the outrageous length. I needed to get back to my roots. 411 words on the Portland Trail Blazers? You’re damn right! This is my love letter to basketball after four frigid months apart. 

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Oklahoma City Thunder

Ceiling: 65+ wins, NBA Champions

Projected Rotation

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein
• Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams 

I cried tears of joy as the Thunder dribbled the clock out in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, for I had fallen head over heels in love with this team. It was nice to be right, of course. Take a look at my Shai MVP dissertation from before the playoffs last year and you’ll see that I penned some gobsmackingly arrogant prophecies that would have been mortifying and indefensible had the Thunder not won and Shai not outdueled Jokic in the Western Conference Semifinals. But more than anything, I wanted the characters I had grown so attached to both on and off the court to get their happy ending. A championship means elation, but it also births a mythical, unimpeachable armor of vindication. The more I grow to loathe ring culture and its oafish simplicity, the more I suffer its toxicities, for I am all the more aware that the legendary seasons of my favorite players will be discarded and forgotten if they end without holding the trophy. 

It’s been eight years since we have had a repeat champion in the NBA, and the Thunder showed too much vulnerability in their matchups with Denver and Indiana for me to trust that they will break that trend. No defending champion has even reached a Conference Finals since 2019. Among my suspicions about that trend is that a championship run typically results in opposing teams experimenting (often fruitlessly in the moment) with every imaginable scheme, which, upon offseason examination, reveals the biggest weaknesses of that champion. The 2023 Nuggets struggled on a small scale with a roaming double-big innovation from Chris Finch’s #8 seeded Timberwolves in an uneventful five-game series, which a year later proved to be the blueprint for ending their title defense. The 2025 Thunder repeatedly sputtered offensively when teams blended a commitment to pressuring and exhausting Shai in the backcourt with a hybrid zone defense that brought into question the reliability of Lu Dort, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams as outside shooters. 

Both the Nuggets and Warriors are well-equipped to challenge the Thunder in this way. I love how the Thunder match up with Cleveland and New York in a theoretical Finals, but I don’t think they make it out of the West. They should remain a historically awesome defense and a 60+ win team, though, and I expect them to be among the favorites every year of Shai’s prime. 

I should mention, the pricing of this team is diabolical. Why is DraftKings offering a bet for them to get to 76+ wins? And why is it only +10,000! 76 wins is impossible. They could start the season with five consecutive fifteen game winning streaks, each separated by just one single loss, and they’d still need to win Game 81 on the road in Denver to get to 76! They are +200 to win the title, which is extreme in its own right, but they are also only +750 to pull off the first three-peat since the Shaq and Kobe Lakers. Do not bet any of this! 

Bet: No bet

Denver Nuggets

Ceiling: 55-60 wins, NBA Champions

Projected Rotation

• Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
• Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Jonas Valanciunas

One bet that I can’t with any integrity add to this portfolio, but which I’m nevertheless going to brag about, is a bet I beseeched my friend to place immediately on the day the Nuggets acquired Cam Johnson: Denver to win the title at +1700. I can only imagine he wagered something in the neighborhood of $700,000,000 because the line has moved all the way to +600 and DraftKings sent representatives to his home to beg him to cash out. 

He, of course, declined, for he knew too well the following. One, Cameron Johnson is a robust upgrade over Michael Porter Jr, sacrificing none of his shooting talent while lapping him tenfold in basketball IQ. Two, Jonas Valanciunas represents freedom from the agonizing era of nightly plane crashes in the non-Jokic minutes piloted by DeAndre Jordan and Zeke Nnaji. Three, Tim Hardaway Jr and Bruce Brown ameliorate the need for A) Russell Westbrook and B) incoherent hodgepodges of undeveloped and undertalented youth to take on 15+ minute per game roles in critical playoff series. 

Nikola Jokic needs no discussion – he has rightfully entered the Greatest Offensive Player Ever (GOPE?) conversation as the defining legend of the 2020s. Aaron Gordon’s development continues to awe me. A worse-built, injury-plagued version of these Nuggets just pushed OKC seven games in 2024. I don’t have the stomach to endorse a bet on them now when they were so much more lucrative two months ago, but they are my official pick to win the Western Conference.

Bet: No bet

Houston Rockets

Ceiling: 55 wins, NBA Champions

Projected Rotation

• Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr, Alperen Sengun
• Tari Eason, Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Okogie, Steven Adams, Clint Capela

Fred VanVleet was *essential* to these Rockets. He was their most reliable decision maker, one of the only players capable of creating a shot off the dribble, and an impossibly good defender for his size. The torn ACL he suffered in August is going to be the “what-if” of the year if Houston comes up just short of winning the West without him. 

With VanVleet and Jalen Green gone, all the Rockets can do is hand the keys to Reed Sheppard and Amen Thompson and pray that one of them can learn how to play NBA point guard. Sheppard played less than 10 minutes per game as a rookie, and I adore Amen Thompson but he cannot shoot and thus may create drastic spacing issues as the primary offensive initiator. On the flip side, both guys were superstar prospects with offensive ceilings that are higher (certainly in theory) than both VanVleet and Jalen Green combined. Thus, I see them as one of just six teams with a championship ceiling, yet simultaneously (as I’ll explain) endorse a regular season bet on their under.

Kevin Durant is the exact player that the 2024 Rockets needed. Durant is the tough bucket-getter to end all tough bucket-getters. You can put him in a straightjacket and stick him in a broom closet and he’ll still find space to get off his shot. His size, technical mastery, and economized movement make him the ultimate release valve for a flailing offense, particularly late in the shot clock. The Rockets would have easily defeated the Warriors in the playoffs last year but for a singularly horrifying demonstration of ineptitude scoring the basketball. The Rockets mammoth size and rebounding also meshes well with some of Durant’s festering difficulties tolerating physicality in the postseason. He can play a lot more SG/SF minutes on this team, liberating him from the bruising matchups that led to high turnover rates and meek defensive efforts against Boston, Denver, and Minnesota in his most recent playoff appearances. The Rockets have Sengun, Clint Capela, Steven Adams, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jabari Smith Jr, and even Tari Eason to take on these burdens for KD, and I’m enthusiastically bullish on an improved KD playoff run in this more accommodating environment. 

This analysis is detached from my expectations about the regular season, which I think will be a challenge. 

Bet: Under 52.5 wins (+105)

• Only one team got to 53 wins in the West last season (OKC, 68). The conference is a bloodbath, and there are several teams with more continuity who I believe can usurp Houston’s previous standing as the 2 seed, those being Denver, Minnesota, Golden State, and the Clippers. This is also why I’m not including a Rockets title bet. If I am right, and they end up as a 48-49 win five seed (or something along those lines), their title odds will inevitably drift closer to 20 or 25 to one, at which point I expect I’ll be banging the drum for Houston. 

Golden State Warriors

Ceiling: 50-55 wins, NBA Champions

Projected Rotation

• Steph Curry, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Al Horford
• Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Jonathan Kuminga (?), Gary Payton II, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis

The Warriors are the last of just six teams that I think can win a championship this season as presently constituted, and they are the only one for whom I appear to be on an island. The Thunder, Nuggets, Cavs, Knicks, and Rockets are the top-five teams in title odds on every sportsbook in America. Then, taking FanDuel for example, the Clippers, Lakers, Timberwolves, Magic, Hawks, and *Celtics* all have better odds than the Warriors at +3000. They are appallingly and inexplicably mispriced. 

The Golden State Warriors traded for Jimmy Butler midway through last season and overnight became an inner circle title contender. Post-trade, the Warriors’ net rating was +9.0 per 100 possessions. They had the number one defense in the NBA and the eighth-best offense, winning 23 of 30 games Jimmy Butler played (a 63-win pace). They won their first-round series against Houston, then lost Steph Curry to a hamstring injury in Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals, sparing me from what would have been an abjectly terrifying WCF matchup with my Oklahoma City Thunder. 

Age is an undeniable concern. Steph Curry is 37, Jimmy Butler is 36, and Draymond Green is 35. Last season, however, the three of them remained in outrageously good physical condition. The center duo of Post and Horford is not exactly Duncan and Robinson, but they are punishing shooters who will open the space necessary for the Warriors to execute all of their patented chicanery. Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski are good players! Buddy Hield isn’t my cup of tea, and I don’t want to get into the Kuminga drama (the Warriors have bungled it and I feel sorry for him), but there is no conceivable explanation for these odds.

Bet: Over 47.5 wins (+100)

Bet (half-unit): Warriors to win the NBA Championship (+3000)

• You must understand that I am coming to this perspective despite my every bias against it. I have rooted against the Warriors every single season since 2017. I do not want to be doing this. They have forced my hand. 

Los Angeles Clippers

Ceiling: 50-55 wins, Western Conference Finals

Projected Rotation

• James Harden, Bradley Beal, Kawhi Leonard, John Collins, Ivica Zubac
• Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr, Nic Batum, Chris Paul, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Brook Lopez

Everyone makes fun of the Clippers. There’s no joke I can make here that will feel original or insightful. The roster is old. The organization will be found guilty on several counts of financial fraud in the NBA’s investigation of their dealings with Kawhi Leonard. James Harden disappeared in a Game 7 again. Blah blah blah.

Meanwhile, the 2024-2025 Clippers were a joyous story! They entered last season with an O/U of 35.5 wins and Kawhi Leonard’s career seemed to be in dire jeopardy after yet another knee surgery. James Harden was supposed to be washed and the Clippers were expected to blow it up in the 2025 summer. Instead, Ivica Zubac evolved into Ivica Crobac and became an All-Star caliber center, James Harden made All-NBA for the first time in five seasons, and Kawhi Leonard looked the healthiest and happiest he’s looked since San Antonio. The Clips won 50 games with the league’s 2nd best defense and pushed a terrifying Denver Nuggets team to a Game 7, holding Nikola Jokic to just 24 points per game on 58% True Shooting in the series. For obvious reasons, the Clippers are an easy team to make fun of, and I don’t want to deprive you of your chuckles, but they deserve credit for the work they’ve done to salvage a sinking ship. 

A number of analysts I respect (Nekias Duncan, most prominently) are really excited about this Clippers roster. Brook Lopez is an astronomical upgrade over Ben Simmons as the backup center to Zubac, whose ‘Off’ minutes were cataclysmic last season. John Collins is a remarkable addition at cost. Bradley Beal at least profiles similarly to Norman Powell, who they lost to Miami. Kawhi Leonard says this is the first healthy offseason he has had in a decade, and I believe him. They could win 56 games and nab the 2 seed. Or, they could suffer the fate of so many similar rosters of the past… a pulled hamstring here, a nagging back issue there, and suddenly you are getting routinely overwhelmed by younger, fresher legs. One way to look at it is that the Clippers are rolling dice for each of their players above the age of 30, with a 1 signaling a lost season, a 2 portending a gradual dip in play, and anything 3 through 6 representing a healthy season at their usual level of performance. The odds aren’t bad with one or two such dice rolls, but the Clippers are rolling eight. That’s eight players who history would suggest have ~30% chance of falling off significantly. I feel I have no choice but to stay away, and reassess this team come February or March. 

Bet: No bet

Minnesota Timberwolves

Ceiling: 50 wins, Western Conference Finals

Projected Rotation

• Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert
• Donte DiVincenzo, Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon Jr, Naz Reid

Back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances have seen the Timberwolves unceremoniously laid to rest by a pair of generational scorers in Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and I worry that no brighter end awaits them in 2026. 

To first be positive, this is a well-constructed roster and well-coached team that plays a thoroughly likable brand of basketball. Much like the Knicks, Minnesota struggled to reconfigure their systems in the aftermath of the Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle and DDV trade, but by the closing stretch of the season they were playing better basketball than anyone. Minnesota finished on a 17-3 run with a +12.0 net rating, which is ‘96 Bulls territory, then annihilated the Lakers in Round 1 and walked over the Steph-less Warriors in Round 2. I had extensive gripes about theoretical deficiencies in playmaking and ball security with this roster, but the Wolves soundly put those to rest with a 122.0 offensive rating over the back half of the year. Post-marijuana Julius Randle played the most efficient basketball of his life, former analytics-skeptic Anthony Edwards led the league in made threes, and Rudy Gobert captained a top-five defense for the seventh time in his last nine seasons. Jaden McDaniels improved across the board after a shaky 2024, Donte DiVincenzo found his shot in the later months, and Naz Reid continued to be Naz Reid (one of my absolute favorite players in the NBA). 

My skepticism is twofold. I dislike how reliant this team is on Mike Conley, who is now 37 and likely to deteriorate. His departure will be a necessary evil for Minnesota’s long-term outlook, since Anthony Edwards needs about a thousand more point guard reps to amend some of the weaknesses in his playmaking profile, but for now Conley remains the only gifted processor and orchestrator they have. I also fear that the loss of Nickeill Alexander-Walker will leave them one piece short in matchups with the titans of the West (Denver, OKC) – it takes multiple long and savvy wings to disrupt the operation against Shai, Jalen Williams, Jamal Murray, and Jokic, and the young players replacing NAW’s minutes offer none of his wit and tenacity. 

All this really means is that I don’t think they can beat OKC or Denver in a 7-game series, hence the WCF ceiling. I understand they have been Denver’s kryptonite in the past but the size dropoff from KAT to Julius Randle, compounded by Aaron Gordon’s development as a shooter, the signings of Cam Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas, and the departure of Nickeill Alexander-Walker cause the history to feel somewhat irrelevant to me. 

Bet: Timberwolves to win 48-51 games (+300)

• I was (and am) very torn between this and the straight win total over of 49.5 (+110). Six Western Conference teams finished between 48 and 51 wins last season, including Minnesota who went 49-33. Their expected win total was higher (54), but they also had a very healthy season, so I balance those factors to get them right back into this range. 

San Antonio Spurs

Ceiling: 45-50 wins, Western Conference Finals

Projected Rotation

• De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Harison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama
• Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, Julian Champagnie, Kelly Olynyk, Luke Kornet

There is a grizzly curmudgeon resting somewhere in the abandoned recesses of my mind who feels strongly that this team has insurmountable shooting and general talent deficits on the wings, that the history of players as tall as Victor Wembanyama surviving the rigors of a full NBA season is slim, and that public enthusiasm has steamed up the prices of this San Antonio Spurs team beyond any defensible assessment of their team strength. The curmudgeon makes well-founded arguments, and I’ll let him do the talking when we get to the Lakers and Mavericks, but for the next 400 words I will be locking him in a freezer and bolting the door shut. 

Victor Wembanyama is going to be the greatest player in NBA history. That starts with a 46-win season, his first Defensive Player of the Year, and a Round 1 upset over whichever of Houston, Denver, Golden State, or Oklahoma City draws the misfortune of facing him. Wemby is seven-foot-five with the wingspan of a California Condor. The backboard, to him, is as viable and nearby a surface for dribbling as the hardwood floor, as are I imagine the tops of his adversaries’ heads. As if trying to become the Avatar, he spent weeks in a Shaolin monk temple this summer, mastered Kung Fu, shaved his head, then entered into the tutelage of Hakeem Olajuwon and Kevin Garnett. 

I have audibly cackled at every preseason highlight I’ve seen thus far. He picked up his dribble six inches inside the three-point line, paused for a moment, then sent poor Isaiah Jackson into an existential crisis by pivoting across half the diameter of the court for a 21-foot step-through layup. He hip-checked Jay Huff into the fifth row with the effortlessness of pushing through a semi-open door, then delivered a stand-still putback dunk on a missed free throw. He blocked a layup attempt by Guan Ziyu so badly that Wemby ended up grabbing his OWN RIM in the follow-through. 

What would I set his averages at right now? 29 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, four blocks? Is that insane? It feels conservative! 

This team is also not *that* bad. De’Aaron Fox’s injury is aggravating, because it means the Spurs will likely start slow and have some trouble settling on the appropriate touch distribution throughout the year. But Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and Jeremy Sochan are all players that have at different times shown immense promise, Luke Kornet (+2.3 EPM in 2025) is a fantastic piece to mix in both with and without Wembanyama on the floor, and I love Champagnie and Olynyk as back-end rotational relief pitchers. There is no doubt in my mind that this is a playoff team with 70 games of Victor Wembanyama.

Bet: Spurs over 43.5 wins (-105)

Bet: Wembanyama 5/5/5/5/5 game (+300)

• Wemby did this twice last year, I think it will cash by Christmas. I badly wanted to place even more bets on Wemby (MVP @ +1100, 28+ PPG at +320, anytime quadruple double @ +2000) but the market is infuriatingly bullish on him, such that there is nowhere near appropriate value in any of these. So I’ll have to settle for staking my reputation on his ascension. 

Los Angeles Lakers

Ceiling: 45-50 wins, Western Conference Semifinals

Projected Rotation

• Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, Lebron James, Deandre Ayton
• Gabe Vincent, Marcus Smart, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jake LaRavia, Jaxson Hayes

The Lakers are the NBA’s most popular team, they roster its most popular player (Lebron), and they just pulled off a trade that most media members instantly crowned among the greatest heists in NBA history, exchanging Anthony Davis and Max Christie for Luka Doncic. Their ancillary pieces have strong production profiles both on the Lakers and in prior destinations, the head coach (JJ Redick) is widely considered a basketball genius, and they were the Western Conference #3 seed last season at 50-32. For these reasons, I don’t want to be condescending or hurried in my explanation of why I believe they are more likely to miss the playoffs than they are to contend for a championship this season (despite their 6th-best title odds). 

 The 2020 Los Angeles Lakers, Lebron’s most recent title team, invested all of their non-Lebron resources into building an elite defense, trusting that Lebron (even at age 35) could be a top-10 offense unto himself. They rode Anthony Davis, Alex Caruso, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, and even late-career Dwight Howard to a 106.1 defensive rating, better than the historically great 2025 OKC Thunder (106.7), while Lebron moved mountains to drag a severely flawed offense across the finish line. 

The 2024 Dallas Mavericks, with whom Luka made his first and only NBA Finals appearance, likewise relied on stifling rim protection as its calling card – their 110 postseason defensive rating played a larger role in their success than their offense, which Luka exhausted himself just to keep afloat at league average. 

This formula has been effective because it is predicating on squeezing the utter maximum out of these transcendentally talented offensive players – Lebron and Luka are functionally gigantic point guards with unprecedented blends of scoring and playmaking ability, so gifted that it is impossible to have a bad offense with them on the floor. This renders it the optimal strategy to surround them with great defenders and talented off-ball scorers (elite shooters, rim-running bigs, etc). 

The 2025 Lakers are going for the polar opposite of this formula. The best defensive player on the team is 41-year-old Lebron James. They will, flatly and undoubtedly, be one of the worst defenses in the league. The plan, ostensibly, is to overwhelm teams with offensive skill. “How is your 2nd best defender going to guard Lebron? How is your 3rd best defender going to guard Austin Reaves?” Etc. It’s a fun strategy, albeit more of an NBA 2k one, and I don’t doubt that this team will score the ball at a high level. 

The existence of just one ball, and the immovable dimensions of the court, however, provide a capped ceiling for NBA scoring output, particularly given the creativity of modern defenses. Luka and Lebron are both dazzling in their ability to win one-on-one matchups off the dribble and collapse the defense, opening up shooters on the perimeter, but there is a redundancy in their skillset. A possession in which Luka drives into the teeth of a defense and kicks to Reaves for three does not meaningfully benefit from Lebron’s presence on the court. If teams are taking away the rim, how much more open can an open shot be? 

Lebron is also 41 years old and sidelined for months with right glute sciatica. I think he’s the greatest player of all time, but it would be foolish to take as a given that a body this old will be able to procure another All-NBA caliber season. Their regular season win total has dropped to where I no longer feel strongly about betting on them, but there is no confidence to be had in a team with zero good defenders making a run in a Western Conference loaded with MVPs and multi-time scoring champions. 

Bet: No bet

Dallas Mavericks

Ceiling: 40-45 wins, Make the Playoffs, lose Round 1

Projected Rotation

• D’Angelo Russell, Klay Thompson, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Derrick Lively II
• Max Chrisite, Naji Marshall, Caleb Martin, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford
• Kyrie Irving (return from ACL pending… February?)

I am too technologically inept to figure out how to link one of my old articles from within this new article, but please refer to my “Making Sense of the Wildest Trade Deadline in NBA History” piece from February if you want my diatribe on the Luka Doncic trade. I am leaving it in the past, particularly now that this stupid clown car managed to crash and burn its way into the first overall pick of the NBA Draft. The moral arc of the universe bends towards death, and notions of karma are the egoistic hallucinations of a confused species. 

The idea of this team is perfectly interesting. A frontcourt of Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, PJ Washington, Derrick Lively, and Daniel Gafford sounds about as intimidating as any, and meshes flawlessly with a backcourt of Klay and Kyrie, who’d be licensed to launch 25 perimeter shots a night and empowered by the giants behind them to play hyper-aggressive perimeter defense. This vision is what explains the deafening offseason buzz about this team – they have the 10th best title odds in the NBA at +2500 as I write this. 

This vision is also categorically undisciplined and requires some kind of time-bending elixir. This will be the 14th season for Anthony Davis in the NBA, the 15th season for Kyrie, and the 13th season for Klay Thompson. Klay Thompson has both a torn ACL and a torn Achilles in his injury history, Kyrie Irving is recovering from a freshly torn ACL, and Anthony Davis discloses his injury history to doctors by simply writing “all of the above.” For all three of these players, we should brace for yearly decline and a heightened susceptibility to further injury. Cooper Flagg, meanwhile, is eighteen years old. The history of teenage NBA players, ballyhooed or not, and of all rookies since 2010, suggests that it is vanishingly unlikely for Cooper Flagg to have a significant positive impact on winning games this season. Rookie Lebron had a -0.4 EPM. Rookie Paolo’s was -1.2, rookie Cade Cunningham’s was -0.9, rookie Anthony Edwards was -1.2, and so on for basically every single highly touted prospect not named Victor Wembanyama. Flagg may well be the exception, but he isn’t a better prospect than Cade or Lebron, and he is going to be asked to play a demanding, unfamiliar role on a team of veterans that expects to win immediately. 

Put plainly, I don’t think these players will ever be playing great basketball at the same time on the same team. Kyrie needs a year to recover from the ACL and Flagg needs several years to develop into a star, by which point Klay will likely be closer to done and AD will have further suffered and declined. I’m happy to guarantee that this team will not win the 2026 NBA Finals, but that bet is not available and I think the 40.5 win total set by Vegas is shrewd.

Bet: No bet

Memphis Grizzlies

Ceiling: 45-50 wins, Make the Playoffs, lose Round 1

Projected Rotation

• Ja Morant, Jaylen Wells, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jaren Jackson Jr, Zach Edey
• Ty Jerome, Vince Williams Jr, Santi Aldama, Scotty Pippen Jr, Cedric Coward, Brandon Clarke, GG Jackson?

The league’s most injured team of 2023 wakes up on the morning of Opening Day with Brandon Clarke, Zach Edey, Scottie Pippen Jr, Ty Jerome, and Ja Morant all on the injury report, their statuses in varying levels of doubt for the beginning weeks and months of the regular season. It isn’t fair. Desmond Bane is on the Magic, Jay Huff is on the Pacers, and Luke Kennard is on the Hawks, but the Grizzlies have drafted and developed so well that they are still projected to be a 40+ win team. 

One thing you need to be mindful of when assessing the Grizzlies is that everyone’s individual statistical footprint is going to be capped by their extreme, hockey-style minutes rotation. Take Jaren Jackson Jr – 22 PPG and 6 RPG on 59% TS is not going to jump off the page, but an adjusted analysis reveals it to have been the best season of his career, and, while I stand by my decision to have left him off my imaginary All-NBA ballot, I am penciling in another 70 games of All-NBA impact from him in 2026. Ja Morant is, to me, their second best player, and you might not be moved by his stats either at first glance, but that’s because he barely played 30 minutes per night. Extrapolate his stats to Per 36 Minutes and you’ll see a starlike production profile of 28 points, 5 rebounds, and 9 assists. This isn’t a mismanagement by the Memphis coaching staff, either. They really like their depth (for good reason) and believe that a reduced minutes load for all individual players over the course of the season will lead to better per-minute results across the board. 

The loss of Bane definitely caps this team’s ceiling, and their offseason injuries made it difficult to trust them in any betting context, but they have more than enough talent to outduel one of the flashier, more star-studded teams listed above for a playoff spot in the West. 

Bet: No bet

Portland Trail Blazers

Ceiling: 40 wins, Participate in the Play-in Tournament

Projected Rotation

• Jrue Holiday, Shaedon Sharpe, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan
• Scoot Henderson, Jerami Grant, Matisse Thybulle, Rob Williams III, Yang Hansen

I tried to enjoy watching this team last season. They were a nice surprise, winning 36 games (blowing past their preseason O/U of 21.5) through earnest defense and communal point scoring. Both Shaedon Sharpe and Toumani Camara are walking highlight factories on their respective ends of the court. I just never found myself fantasizing about the future in Portland, an experience I tend to have pretty often and without much provocation when watching bad teams leaguewide. 

There’s an EPM phenomenon with them that I think is an amusing encapsulation of my underwhelmedness – the ten most “impactful” members of the 2024-2025 Portland Trail Blazers all registered an EPM between negative 1.0 and positive 1.0, a mundanity above and beyond that of any other roster in the Association. 

Did they get better or worse this offseason? They lose Simons and Ayton in exchange for Jrue Holiday and rookie Yang Hansen. Scoot Henderson is going to miss the first month or two with a hamstring tear, which might mean more short-term wins given his youth and lack of polish. I don’t think I feel strongly either way.

Bet: No bet

Phoenix Suns

Ceiling: 35-40 wins, Participate in the Play-in Tournament

Projected Rotation

• Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Ryan Dunn, Mark Williams
• Collin Gillespie, Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, Oso Ighodaro, Nick Richards

Out with Kevin Durant, out with Bradley Beal, and out with Mike Budenholzer. Nay, Yay, Hooray! Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, and Jordan Ott have arrived in their stead, and rebuilding season is officially back on for a Suns team that still owes several hundred draft picks to the Brooklyn Nets. It’s a sad state of affairs for a team not far removed from a 2-0 lead in the 2021 NBA Finals and a 64-18 record in 2022, but nothing can be sadder than the self-hating disgrace of a unit that wore purple and orange last season. This should be a refreshing season, far removed from the emotional rigors of expectation, where Devin Booker can mentor Jalen Green and Jordan Ott can work to install some of the concepts that made Cleveland so dominant in his time with them as an assistant coach in 2024-2025. 

I think the Suns will be feisty! As long as Devin Booker is relatively bought in defensively, there’s no need for this team to be awful on that end – Dillon Brooks, Royce O’Neale, and Ryan Dunn are a fair defensive trio of wings, and Jalen Green demonstrated an ability to at the very least not unilaterally sabotage an elite defense last season in Houston. Phoenix has sorely lacked any commitment to movement and volume three-point shooting for over a decade, and everything Jordan Ott has said thus far suggests he will be aggressively leaning on both of those things in his scheme. This is not a playoff team, but I think there will be palpable relief in Devin Booker after a couple of miserable seasons trying to meet championship expectations on childishly constructed rosters playing for Head Coaches that the locker room openly despised. 

Bet: Suns Over 30.5 wins (+100)

• 31-51 is a terrible record, and it still gets this team to the over. I power rank this team closer to 20th than 25th, which historically has indicated ~35-37 wins. The West is brutal, but there is “bottom falls out” potential for a lot of the theoretically scary West teams that could pave the road for more easy wins as the seasons goes on. 

New Orleans Pelicans

Ceiling: 35-40 wins, Participate in the Play-in Tournament

Projected Rotation

• Jordan Poole, Trey Murphy III, Herbert Jones, Zion Williamson, Yves Missi
• Jeremiah Fears, Jordan Hawkins, Saddiq Bey, Jose Alvarado, Derik Queen, Kevon Looney
• Dejounte Murray (February?)

The Pelicans are the Hornets of the West. I am certain I am the only person in the country who has said this and meant it as a compliment. They do not have any talent at the Center position, but they have a pair of really good wings and an offensive engine who will go nuclear if he stays healthy. Let’s make this a Zion conversation. 

When Zion entered the league, we were promised a generation-defining superstar, and there’s no denying the results have been ghastly. Zion Williamson has missed 258 games due to injury as an NBA player while only playing in 214 games. 45% attendance would not be acceptable for a child in the second grade, and it certainly hasn’t sufficed for 2018’s first overall draft pick. Much has been made of his weight and lack of discipline in the training room – these aren’t subjects I comment on. I try from afar to regard all injury-prone players with compassion and sympathy, but I understand it isn’t always a matter of pure luck and I cannot guarantee health for Zion moving forward. 

But heed my words. Zion is averaging 29/8/5 per 36 minutes on 63% True Shooting for his career. Last season he upped that to 31, 9, and 7. He gets to the rim and the free throw line at rates bested only by Giannis and SGA, and he finishes with both hands and off every angle at a supernatural level. If he plays, he will dominate. 

Bet: Pelicans Over 30.5 wins (-105)

• The New Orleans Pelicans do not own their own draft pick in 2026… they traded both their 2025 and 2026 first rounders to move up in 2025 and draft Derik Queen. It’s malpractice. But it swings the incentives in our favor. This hinges a lot on Zion’s health, which is rough, but Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III being back and healthy might be worth 10 added wins in its own right. Jordan Poole is also a nice pickup after a surprisingly mature and strong season with the Wizards. 

Sacramento Kings

Ceiling: 35-40 wins, Participate in the Play-in Tournament (except this isn’t the ceiling, it’s a joyless disaster, the ceiling is they are terrible and blow it up)

Projected Rotation

• Dennis Schroder, Keegan Murray, Zach LaVine, Demar Derozan, Domantas Sabonis
• Malik Monk, Keon Ellis, Russell Westbrook, Nique Clifford, Drew Eubanks

The Kings have wasted my time and effort. They took my Light the Beam Kings, an infectious joyride of a team that set the NBA record for best offensive rating and pushed the defending champion Golden State Warriors to a game 7 in Sacramento, and turned them into a pathetic, incoherent husk of has-beens. They will waste my time no further. 

Bet: No bet

Utah Jazz

Ceiling: 30 wins

Projected Rotation

• Isaiah Collier, Ace Bailey, Taylor Hendricks, Lauri Markaanen, Walker Kessler
• Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Kyle Filipowski, Walter Clayton Jr, Jusuf Nurkic

The Utah Jazz have only gotten to select a player with one of the first eight selections of the NBA draft three times in the last 42 seasons. They have never picked first overall. They are trying desperately to change that. 

Last season was the first time in franchise history that the Jazz won less than 30% of their games, and still they couldn’t land a pick higher than 5th (Ace Bailey). Their 17-65 record was almost twice as bad as the next-worst season in Jazz history, a 2004-2005 team that went 26-56, and they just sent Collin Sexton, John Collins, and Jordan Clarkson packing with the goal of losing even more games. There is absolutely no reason I should be investing anything in this operation. Danny Ainge will be apoplectic if this team is anything other than 30th in the standings when all is said and done. 

But Danny Ainge has a problem, and that problem’s name is Lauri Markaanen. Until or unless they trade him, the Jazz are stuck with a bona fide All-Star who might not even need to play seventy games to get this team to twenty wins. 

Bet: Jazz to win 20-23 games (+340)

• This is probably the bet I am most excited to root for. Again, the four-win bands are exponentially more valuable for teams with lower win totals, hence that being the angle here. The Jazz are only +115 to win 20 games. They have no chance of winning more than 25, because this front office would sooner vault themselves onto the court and play defense than allow this Jazz roster to play itself out of a bottom-four record in the league.