I am quite certain nobody in history has started writing a playoff preview at 2:00 a.m. the night before the games begin. Alas, here I am. This cannot be an article, in any true sense of the word. If I write more than a half paragraph per matchup, I have failed. The purpose of this is strictly to document my picks – analysis can come during and after. The good news is that I do not think any of these series are going to be all that competitive. The fun awaits us in Round 2. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE ROUND ONE

1. Detroit Pistons (60-22) vs 8. Orlando Magic (45-37)

I am struggling not to overindex on what the Magic just did to Charlotte. The first half of that game may have been the most impressive half of basketball I saw from any team this entire season. The Magic were bullies. The Hornets could not set a single successful screen, could not complete a pass without having it deflected, and could not generate an angle from which to even see the rim on their drives into the forest of Bitadze, Banchero, Wagner, and Carter Jr. 

I had so much hope for this Orlando team preseason. Read my preview for them and you will see that I had them power rated 3rd in the Eastern Conference with an estimate of 50-55 wins and the ceiling to make the NBA Finals. I, of course, no longer feel that way – the Magic, who hate their coach Jamahl Mosley and have had it leaked that they are firing him “no matter the results of this year’s playoffs,” have been a miserable team to watch all season, and I can think of no more disappointing season from a purported superstar than Paolo Banchero’s. Still, the pendulum has swung too far in the negative direction. Their two most impactful players (and best defenders), Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner, missed 73 games this season. This is likely a 50+ win team given health, and the strongest roster of the 5-8 seeds in the East.

It’s a brutal draw for Detroit, who deserved a cakewalk after a glorious 60-win season and instead have to play an exhaustingly physical series against a battalion of bodybuilders in Orlando. The matchup is nostalgic stylistically – these teams both have severe spacing/shooting issues (bottom ten in 3-point volume AND percentage), they are both gigantic and lean on physicality, and they both live at the free throw line. I think we are in for a classic mid 2000s rockfight with scores in the 95-90 range, 70+ free throw attempt games, and at least four ejections. Cade’s passing should be the difference, but I have this as the closest matchup in all of Round 1. 

Prediction: Pistons win in 6 games

Confidence: 90%

2. Boston Celtics (56-26) vs 7. Philadelphia 76ers (45-37)

This is a very different conversation with Joel Embiid healthy, but an appendectomy is a procedure that really takes a lot out of you. Sorry, yes, boo, I’ll try again. 

Embiid had his appendix removed – the average missed time for an appendectomy is over a month (OG Anunoby missed the entire playoffs in 2019) – so, unlike many are recklessly reporting, he is not choosing to sit out. He is almost certainly going to miss the entire series. The 76ers went 21-23 in games Joel Embiid missed this season with a net rating of -3.0, only a hair better than the 2025-2026 New Orleans Pelicans. In short, this is not a playoff team. I am seeing some Philly enthusiasm, I assume on account of perceived starpower in their duo of Tyrese Maxey and rejuvenated post-suspension Paul George, but this team is going to get annihilated by Boston. There is an oceanic disparity in coaching, connectivity, and attention to detail on both ends of the court that is not going to be helped by the additional preparation time. 

Prediction: Celtics win in 4 games

Confidence: 98% (note: with a healthy Embiid, this is a 6+ game series)

3. New York Knicks (53-29) vs 6. Atlanta Hawks (46-36)

The Knicks should feel obscenely disrespected. They make the Conference Finals last year, beating Boston along the way, then get better in every metric the next season, win more games, finish 5th in net rating (+6.3) with the 4th best offense and the 6th best defense, and serious “experts” are still picking them to LOSE to the 46-win Atlanta Hawks led by CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson, and Nickeill Alexander-Walker? Do people hear themselves? Las Vegas has the Knicks at just -240 to win the series, making them the slimmest favorite of the first round, and implied heavy underdogs against Boston in the next round. Michael Pina, Nick Wright, Bill Simmons, Ben Taylor, and others have ALL declared this either a Hawks win or a 7-game nailbiter of a series. 

I keep checking in every advanced statistical nook and cranny to make sure I’m not missing some epiphanic revelation about the Atlanta Hawks, but it does not exist. The calling card is “they’re 20-6 since the All Star Break.” Gee, that sounds impressive! Let’s take a look at some of those games. 

It starts with a win against Philadelphia with no Embiid and no Paul George. Then it’s the Nets, the Wizards, the Wizards, the Blazers with no Deni Avdija, the hapless Bucks, the 76ers again with no Embiid and no Paul George, then the Mavs, the Nets again, the Bucks again, the Magic with no Franz Wagner (still by far the best win so far), the Mavs again, the floundering Warriors with no Steph Curry, the Grizzlies, the Pistons with no Cade (in overtime), the Kings, the Celtics with no Tatum and no Queta, the Magic again, the Nets for a third time, then the Cavs with no Donovan Mitchell and no Jarrett Allen. 

Count them. That is all twenty wins. Sixteen of those wins are utterly meaningless to me. The tanking teams went 12-167 collectively against all non-tanking teams from February through to the end of the regular season (credit to Tom Haberstroh for that staggering statistic). The Hawks beat the Magic twice, the Pistons without Cade once, and the Celtics on the second night of a back to back without two of their starters. In the meantime, they lost to the Knicks, lost to the healthy Cavs, lost to the healthy Celtics, got trounced by the healthy Rockets, and got annihilated by the Heat (twice, but the second time was the last game of the season and the Hawks were resting starters). I do not care at all what their net rating was in this stretch of games. It is a Mickey Mouse +9.7 net rating, as the kids say. 

Now, the Hawks do some things well. They get out and run – Knicks will have to minimize transition opportunities, which starts with taking care of the basketball and tagging on the offensive glass. Dyson Daniels is a bloodhound on the perimeter. Onyeka Okongwu is a player any team would be delighted to have. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been unconscious (48% from three) for months. But this should not be nearly as difficult as the Knicks first round series against Philadelphia and Detroit the past two seasons. I think this is the best Knicks team of the century, and the Hawks are a perfectly average six seed. 

Prediction: Knicks win in 5 games

Confidence: 95% (only lowered by the Hawks fervor that I feel gaslit by)

4. Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30) vs 5. Toronto Raptors (46-36)

I have been unable to shake this nagging concern that the Cavs are a sleeping giant. They’ve happily coasted through the regular season, registering less than a dozen games with their expected starting lineup, chuckling under their breath as they watch the Knicks and Celtics set themselves on a Round 2 collision course. The Cavs are probably the most talented roster in the Eastern Conference on paper. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden make up an All-NBA backcourt, and Evan Mobley + Jarrett Allen = inarguably the best pair of bigs in the conference. They somehow have accumulated robust depth with Max Strus and Dean Wade healthy to accompany Dennis Schroder, Sam Merrill, Jaylon Tyson, and Keon Ellis off the bench. They have 13 players they are willing to play once you include Tomlin, Porter Jr, and Thomas Bryant, who have averaged 44 MPG combined across 180 games played. I think they are potentially the stealth contender in the Association. 

On the other side are the Toronto Raptors, who had Knicks fans buried in their phones during the 4th quarter at Madison Square Garden last Sunday rabidly cheering for the Magic to defeat the Celtics and set up a Knicks vs Raptors Round 1 series. Everyone wanted to play Toronto, and for good reason. They got to 46 wins by beating up on the bad teams (24-6 against below .500 teams), and got smashed whenever they played serious competition (2-20 against the Pistons, Thunder, Spurs, Celtics, Knicks, Lakers, and Rockets). They did play well against Cleveland, but all three matchups occurred in November, making them useless for predicting how they will match up in this series. 

Prediction: Cavs win in 5 games

Confidence: 95%

WESTERN CONFERENCE ROUND ONE

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) vs 8. Phoenix Suns (45-37)

Are the Suns going to score any points? I understand on some practical level that they will, but it is hard to imagine a possession of their halfcourt offense that could plausibly result in an open shot against the Thunder’s halfcourt defense. I don’t predict sweeps, since a team would need to have an 85% chance of winning each individual game in order to be >50% to win four in a row and basketball is too subject to wild shooting variance for that, but I will make an exception here. 

Prediction: Thunder win in 4 games

Confidence: 99%

2. San Antonio Spurs (62-20) vs 7. Portland Trail Blazers (42-40)

This will be a very fun series to watch relative to the gulf in team quality. Wembanyama’s first playoff series is must-see television, and he draws a frankly brutal matchup defensively. The Blazers have the length and defensive talent in Jrue Holiday, Toumani Camara, and Scoot Henderson to limit the effectiveness of dribble penetration from the Spurs slashing guards, and I’m not sure people are aware of quite how large Clingan is. Donovan Clingan is 7’2” and 280 pounds. Those are Godzilla dimensions. Wemby is of course impossible to match up with, but I can’t really imagine a better candidate for the job than Clingan, who has been playing extraordinary, borderline All-Star caliber basketball for the Blazers since January. The Blazers also take the most threes of any playoff team! Which is another stat that may surprise some of you, and which definitely fits the theoretical mold for countering Victor Wembanyama. 

Unfortunately for the Blazers, as I said before the season, Victor has his sights set on the GOAT title, and I believe he is going to get there. His reign of terror is not going to start with a loss to the 42-40 Trail Blazers. Still, it’s a quietly interesting matchup! A close gentleman’s sweep would still make for great entertainment in a first round that sorely lacks intrigue. 

Prediction: Spurs win in 5 games

Confidence: 99%

3. Denver Nuggets (53-29) vs 6. Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)

Someone tell Las Vegas that this should obviously be the closest priced series, not Knicks-Hawks. This is the only series featuring two serious rosters! It is also one of the three best rivalries we have going in the sport this decade. The Timberwolves ended the Nuggets title defense in 2024, but they have since exchanged Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle, which eliminated their unique ability to use a roaming double big coverage against Jokic. 

The Timberwolves do not appear particularly healthy. Anthony Edwards is questionable for Game 1 with knee soreness, Naz Reid’s shoulder has been askew all season, Jaden McDaniels can barely jump, and Julius Randle said he slept for 15 hours the night after the regular season ended. They limped to the finish line (15-11 post ASB), a stark contrast to their white hot 18-3 run entering the playoffs last season, and they face by some measures the greatest offense in NBA history. With Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray sharing the floor (1,600 minutes), the Nuggets posted an incomprehensible 130.6 offensive rating, equivalent to generating a 65% two-point shot on average every possession. TEN players on the roster shot 38% or better from three-point range, with Jamal Murray, Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Julian Strawther making 42% of their 21 nightly three-point attempts. Jokic is surrounded by elite shooting, Jamal Murray is playing at a second team All-NBA level, and Aaron Gordon finally appears healthy. I continue to believe that this Nuggets team is going to win the Western Conference, though they face a catastrophically difficult gauntlet (MIN, SAS, OKC). 

Still, the Timberwolves are going to score a lot of points. This Nuggets defense might be the worst of any playoff team, and Anthony Edwards poses a particular issue for the ground-bound Jokic as paint protector – Edwards averaged a cool 28 in the 2024 series, but Jokic’s defense has deteriorated even further since then, and Ant has scored 25 or more points in nine of their last ten matchups. Randle, Jaden, Rudy, and even to a lesser extent Donte and Dosunmu all put pressure on the rim, where the Nuggets offer zero resistance. This will be enough to win at least one game comfortably, and it is not impossible to envision a scenario in which the dam breaks entirely and the Wolves start stringing together 30-point quarters. 

Prediction: Nuggets win in 6 games

Confidence: 88%

4. Los Angeles Lakers (53-29) vs 5. Houston Rockets (52-30)

This series warrants little commentary, as Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are out indefinitely and 41-year old Lebron is not carrying the island of misfit toys and his son to victory against a healthy 52-win professional basketball team with Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Alperen Sengun. It cannot happen. I would have picked the Rockets to pull off the upset in this series even with a healthy Doncic and Reaves, as I have no faith in the Lakers defense and think this Rockets team has become fairly underrated. I’ll give old man Lebron a game because a sweep would make me sad. 

Prediction: Rockets win in 5 games

Confidence: 99%

Time of completion: 4:14 a.m. 

Thanks for reading 😀